环境因素对农户借贷行为的影响——来自新疆农村地区的经验证据

The Impact of Environmental Factors on Farmers' Lending Behavior:Empirical Evidence from Xinjiang Rural Areas

基于2013年国家统计局新疆调查总队农村住户调查数据,选取相关7个环境指标,运用Logit模型以及自助法(bootstrap),就环境对农户借贷行为的影响进行了实证分析,并探讨了不同收入条件和不同年龄段下环境对农户借贷行为的差异化影响。结果显示:就社会环境而言,社会不安定因素的增加会导致农户借贷行为减少;在经济环境中,农户家庭恩格尔系数与农户的借贷行为成反比关系,而财政补贴占总收入的比例、通信支出占总收入的比例与农户借贷行为的发生成正比例关系;在自然环境中,本村是否通公路、所处地势以及距离县城距离的远近均会对农户的借贷行为产生影响;在不同收入水平下,低等收入群体的借贷行为对社会环境的依赖程度较高,而中等收入群体的借贷行为受经济环境与自然环境的影响较大,但对于高收入群体来说经济环境更重要;在不同年龄层中,不论社会环境、经济环境还是自然环境对青年的借贷行为都有显著影响,而对于中年农户来说,其借贷行为主要受经济环境影响。

Contiguous poor areas are the last obstacle for China to finish building a moderately prosperous society, so financial precision for poverty alleviation is great important. With the Logit model and Bootstrap, the author consider from the environmental factors and select relevant 7 environmental indicators that based on the NBS survey office in xinjiang in 2013 rural household survey data. The author on environmental effects on peasant household borrowing has carried on the empirical analysis. And further discusses the environment under different conditions and different ages income differential impact of peasant household borrowing. As the results： （1） In terms of social environment, the increase in social unrest element will reduce the peasant household borrowing; （2）In the economic environment, farmer family Engel coefficient and the peasant household borrowing behavior are inversely proportional relationship, and financial subsidies accounted for total revenue in the proportion and communication expenditure accounted for proportion of total income and borrowing behavior of rural households have direct proportion; （3） In the natural environment, whether through county highway, terrain and the distance from the county will all affect peasant household borrowing behavior; （4）Under the different income level, the lower income group lending behavior of higher dependence on the social environment, nevertheless moderate income group is borrowing is strongly influenced by the economic environment and the natural environment, but the economic environment is more important for high income group; （5）In different ages, regardless of the social environment, economic environment and natural environment have significantly influence on the lending practices of youth,however as middle-ged farmers for their lending that was mainly affected by the economic environment.