基于IAHP和灾变链式方法的城市油气管道风险诱因与预警研究

Study on risk inducement and warning of urban oil and gas pipeline based on IAHP and disaster chain-styled theory

城市油气管道穿越城区街道、建筑和居民区等特殊地段,保障其安全运行具有重要意义。为实现城市油气管道风险早期预警,基于城市与野外长输油气管道风险对比分析,识别城市油气管道风险预警指标;建立城市油气管道风险预警指标体系,采用区间层次分析法对预警指标重要度进行定量排序,确定关键预警监测点;并依据灾变链式理论,构建城市油气管道重大事故灾变链式模型,研究管道风险演化过程,发现灾变前兆进行断链减灾。研究结果表明:"腐蚀"及"第三方破坏"占据城市油气管道失效致因比重最大,风险因子"油气管道与市政管道距离"以及"城市工程施工作业"应作为城市油气管道重点监测点。同时,围绕城市油气管道风险预警需致力于孕源断链。

The urban oil and gas pipelines pass through the urban streets,buildings,residential areas and other special sections,so ensuring its safe operation is of great significance. In order to achieve the risk early warning of urban oil and gas pipeline,the indexes for risk warning of urban oil and gas pipeline were identified based on the comparative analysis of risk between the urban and field long-distance oil and gas pipelines. An index system of risk warning for urban oil and gas pipeline was established,and the interval analytic hierarchy process（ IAHP） method was used to quantitatively sort the importance of the warning indexes,then the key warning monitoring points were determined. A disaster chain-styled model on major accidents of urban oil and gas pipeline was constructed according to the disaster chain-styled theory,and the risk evolution process of pipeline was studied,so as to discover the disaster precursor and carry out the chain breakage and disaster mitigation. The results showed that the corrosion and the third-party damage occupy the largest proportion in the failure causes of urban oil and gas pipeline. The risk factors including the distance between oil and gas pipeline and municipal pipeline and the urban engineering construction work should be regarded as the key monitoring points of urban oil and gas pipeline. At the same time,the risk warning of urban oil and gas pipeline should concentrate on cutting the disaster chain in the headstream.