环境规制与中国粮食产量关系的研究——基于环境库兹涅茨倒U型曲线

Study on the Relationship between Environmental Regulation and China's Grain Yield——Based on Environmental Kuznets Curve

由于农业环境治理的外部性和粮食安全战略保障需求,政府通过合理的环境政策促进粮食结构改善与生产效率提升,是解决粮食供需矛盾的有效途径。文章选取2005~2014年中国省际面板数据,就环境规制对粮食产量的影响进行了检验。结果表明:环境规制与粮食产量呈倒U型的影响关系。整体上,环境规制水平每提高1%,粮食产量增长1.4320个百分点,但环境规制突破倒U型曲线拐点后,粮食产出效益将会下降;分区域考虑,环境规制对粮食产量影响存在区域差异性,中部地区环境影响系数高于东部并且远大于西部地区。目前,中国各省份粮食生产的环境规制水平正在逐渐增强,较多省份已逼近倒U型曲线拐点值,粮食生产环境成本增加与边际产出效益递减这一现状亟待改善。

Due to the external effect of agricultural environment governance and the require- ment for the strategic guarantee of food security, it is an effective way to solve the contradiction of grain supply and demand for the government to adopt reasonable environmental policies to improve the grain structure and the production efficiency. This article tests the influence of environmental regulation on grain output by using provincial panel data from 2005 to 2014. The results show that there is an inverted U - shaped relationship between environmental regulation and grain output. O- verall, every 1% increase of environmental regulation leads to 1. 4320% improvement of grain output. However, as the strength of environmental regulation becomes stronger and breaks through the inverted U - shaped curve, the grain output will decrease. The influence of environmental reg- ulation on grain output has regional differences. on the central region is higher than that of the Among them, the index of environmental impact eastern regions and a lot higher than that of the western regions. At present, the strength of environmental regulation in different province is be- coming stronger and stronger, and many provinces have been approaching inflection point of the inverted U curve. The situation of increasing environmental cost of grain production and the dimin- ishing marginal returns need to be improved.