摘要
In order to find out the climate change law for Yuxian＇s tobaccos, and provide a theoretical basis for the rational use of climate resources in.the growing area, the meteorological element variation affecting tobacco growth was analyzed by using unary linear regression equation and other statistical analysis methods based on the observation data of Yuxian Weather Station during 1967-2013. The results showed that the average temperature during the growing period of tobacco in the 47 years period was in the normal growth range of tobacco, close to the lowest value of the optimum temperature. Since 1990, there were only 2 years having the accumulated temperature of days with ≥10 ℃ accumulated temperature less than the required accumulated temperature （2 600 ℃.d ） for tobacco growth. The aver- age of frost-free days of flue-cured tobacco in Yuxian in 47 years was 18.7 d more than the required days for the normal growth and maturation of tobaccos. The av- erage of precipitation during the growing period over the years was much lower than the required value for the normal growth of tobaccos. The sunshine hours for Yuxian＇s flue-cured tobacco in the field could meet the requirements for growing high-quality tobaccos. The sunshine hours in harvest and curing period were a bit more than the required number for growing high quality tobaccos. It was cold in winter and spring in Yuxian, during which the dry climate was not conducive to the occurrence of pests and diseases. However, with the warming climate, the pest dis- eases occurred easily. In order to avoid or mitigate meteorological disasters, it was necessary to rationally select the types and planting areas of tobacco, timely carry out irrigation and artificial rain enhancement and hail suppression, and establish a rational meteorological service system as well as early conduct prediction, notifica- tion and prevention of tobacco disasters.
为了找出蔚县烟草气候变化规律,以便为种植区合理利用气候资源提供一定理论依据,利用1967~2013年蔚县气象站观测资料,运用一元线性回归方程等统计方法分析影响烟草生长发育的气象要素变化特征。结果表明,47a来蔚县烤烟生长期的平均气温属于烟草正常生长范围,接近最适宜气温最低值;1990年以来,≥10℃的积温只有两年小于烤烟生长期所需积温(2 600℃·d);47 a来蔚县无霜期平均值比烤烟正常发育成熟所需的无霜期多18.7 d;生长期内降水量历年平均值远低于烤烟正常发育需水量;蔚县烤烟在大田期的日照时数能够满足优质烤烟的所需日照时数,采烤期比优质烤烟所需日照时数略偏多;蔚县冬春季冷凉,干燥的气候特点不利于病虫害发生,但气候的日趋变暖趋势有利于虫害的发展;为了避免或减轻气象灾害,需要合理选择品种和种植地,应适时灌溉,还需要做好人工增雨和人工防雹工作,建立合理气象服务体系,做好烟草灾害的早预报、早通知、早预防。
