郯庐带(南段)现今垂直运动及与地震关系

Recent Vertical Motion and Its Relation to Earthquakes in the Tan-Lu Seismic Zone(Southern Segment)

基于郯庐地震带(南段)1992—2016年的跨断层水准资料,分析该地区垂直形变特征;利用主成分分析和时频分析提取数据中的主要构造性低频信息及其能量强度特征,探讨上述方法提取的"异常"信息与该地区ML4.0以上中强地震的对应关系。结果表明,主成分的时间曲线显示该地区在20世纪90年代后的垂直运动特征与长水准计算结果一致,北部地区的垂直活动性高于南部地区;时频分布中的较强能量集聚能够对应一年以内的ML4.5以上中强地震,可用于该地区中强以上地震的中长期—长期预测参考。

Based on leveling data across fault of Tan-Lu seismic zone from 1992 to 2016 , this paper dis-cussed the vertical deformation feature, used the PCA （principal component analysis） for extracting con-structive low frequency information and its energy intensity feature with JT FA （joint time-frequency analy-sis） ,investigated the information relation to moderate earthquakes above ML4. 0. The results show that the time curve feature of principal components are consistent with long-range leveling results, northern of study area has strong vertical activity. Strong energy concentration area in the time-frequency distribution maps is corresponding to the occurrence of earthquakes over ML4. 5 in less than one year, which could be applied to mid-long term or long term earthquake prediction of this area.