货币政策应该对房价波动做出反应吗——基于中国房地产市场衰退情境的模拟分析

Should Monetary Policy Respond to Housing Price Fluctuation——Based on the Simulation Analysis of China's Real Estate Market Downturn Situation

2014年以来,中国房地产市场经历了明显的衰退和复苏的调整过程,在衰退阶段,房地产市场总需求和总供给出现了结构失衡的局面,对经济发展产生了负面影响。如何减轻房地产市场调整对宏观经济运行的负面影响成为未来中国经济平稳发展的关键。本文从货币政策反应函数的视角出发,模拟分析在货币政策反应函数考虑和不考虑房价波动的情形下,房地产市场进入衰退阶段对宏观经济的影响。结果表明:(1)当货币政策反应函数考虑房价波动时,能够有效减轻房地产市场进入衰退阶段对宏观经济的负面影响;(2)当货币政策反应函数考虑房价波动时,能够显著减轻房地产市场进入衰退阶段时房价的波动程度,进而实现更小的社会福利损失。

Since 2014,China’s real estate market has experienced a significant adjustment process of recession and recovery.In the recession,the total demand and total supply of the real estate market structure have become imbalanced and this situation exerts negative impacts on the economic development.How to cope with these negative impacts that real estate market adjustment exerts on the macro economy in the future has become the key to China’s economy steady development.In this paper,from the perspective of monetary policy response function,we simulate the impacts that the real estate market recession exerts on the macro economy when the monetary policy response function takes and does not take housing price fluctuation into consideration.The simulation results show that:(1)when the monetary policy response function takes housing price fluctuation into consideration,the negative impacts that real estate market recession exerts on the macro economy will be effectively reduced;(2)when the monetary policy response function takes housing price fluctuation into consideration,the extent of housing price fluctuation will effectively reduced and the negative impacts that real estate market recession exerts on the social welfare loss will be reduced.