中国外贸增速变化的行业差异性——基于全球价值链参与度视角

Industry Differences of China's Foreign Trade Growth Rate Changes: Based on the Global Value Chain Participation Perspective

当前,中国出口贸易增速虽然在整体层面上出现大幅下滑,但从行业层面看却表现出巨大的差异性。通过特征事实的考察和初步的相关性分析可以发现,行业层面出口增速变化表现出的差异性与全球价值链分工参与程度的差异性有关。因此在全球经济进入深度调整期,尤其是全球价值链分工边际深化难度逐步加大的背景下,以及中国经济发展进入"新常态",尤其是步入传统比较优势逐步丧失的新阶段后,中国需要依托技术进步等构筑新型比较优势,夯实进一步融入乃至扎根全球价值链的基础;另一方面,应抓住和充分利用"一带一路"倡议提供的机遇,尽快构建起中国自身的全球价值链。这不仅是实现中国出口贸易"稳增长"的战略举措,也是实现出口贸易转型升级和发展更高水平开放型经济的关键所在。

At present, China＇s export trade growth rate is confronted with a sharp decline in the overall level, but it shows great differences at industry level. We can find the difference between the rate of change in export growth at the industry level and the degree of global value chain participation through the study of the characteristic facts and the initial correlation analysis. Therefore, the global economy comes into the depth of adjustment period,especially in the background of global value chain participation＇s marginal deepening difficulty increasing gradually, as well as China＇s economic development into the＂New Normalization＂. China needs to rely on technological progress and other new comparative advantages after entering a new stage, as well as reinforce the further integration and even rooted in the global value chain basis. On the other hand, we should seize and make full use of＂The Belt and Road＂strategic opportunities, as soon as possible to build China＇s own global value chain. This is not only the strategic initiatives to achieve China＇s export trade＂steady growth＂, but also the key to achieve the export trade＇s transformation and upgrading and developing the higher levels open economy.