汇率波动与货币政策对人民币国际化的影响——基于VECM模型的实证分析

The Impact of Exchange Rate Fluctuation and Monetary Policy on RMB Internationalization

运用向量误差修正模型,实证分析了汇率波动与货币政策对人民币国际化进程的影响程度,结果表明,汇率的双向灵活波动,资本账户开放进程的适时调整和货币政策与汇率在长期均衡过程中的有效联动对人民币国际化具有积极的促进作用。因此,应继续推动中国经济转型,通过有序引导人民币汇率的弹性调整来对冲国内去产能的进程,夯实基本经济增长面的同时推动人民币国际化的方式从贸易项下的数量输出向资本项下的价值吸引转变。

This paper uses the vector error correction model to analyze the impact of exchange rate fluctuation and monetary policy on the process of RMB＇s internationalization. The results show that the bidirectional flexible fluctuation of the exchange rate,timely adjustment of the opening process of the capital account and the effective linkage between monetary policy and exchange rate in the long-term equilibrium process have positive effect on RMB＇s internationalization. Therefore,we should continue to promote China＇s economic transformation,through the orderly guidance of the RMB exchange rate flexibility to phaseout the backward industrial capacities,and to consolidate the basic economic growth while promoting the way of RMB＇s internationalization changes from the quantity outputs based on trade to the value attraction based on capital account.