我国工业增加值增速钝化研究

Study on Inactivation of Growth Rate of China's Industrial Added Value

工业增加值增速是考察工业经济运行趋势的重要指标之一。分析近20年来我国工业增加值增速变化情况可以发现,2008年国际金融危机后,我国工业增加值增速开始放缓,波动空间逐渐收窄,近年来呈现钝化趋势。这主要是受宏观经济政策的作用、第二第三产业结构调整、供需错位和新兴产业仍处于起步阶段等因素的影响。预计未来一段时间,我国工业增加值增速仍将继续钝化,生产性服务业将会保持较快增长。只有以满足消费需求为重点,加快推动制度性变革,才能实现工业增加值再次出现较快增长。

The growth rate of industrial added value is one of the important indexes to examine the trend of industrial economy. The analysis of China’s growth rate of industrial added value over the past 20 years shows that since the international financial crisis in 2008, China has slowed down its growth rate of industrial added value, narrowed its fluctuating margin, and made it inactive in recent years. This is mostly influenced by factors such as the macroeconomic policy, the second and third industrial restructuring, the demand and supply mismatches, and the still initiation stage of the rising industries. It is predicted that China’s growth rate of industrial added value will still be inactive for some time in the near future. We need to focus on meeting consumer needs and accelerate the institutional change, so as to achieve the rapid growth of industrial added value again.