小型与E-601型蒸发皿蒸发量对比分析及其折算系数——以江苏省为例

Comparative analysis of small and E-601 pan evaporation and its conversion coefficient——Taking Jiangsu province as an example

本文基于江苏省16个台站小型和E-601型蒸发皿同步对比观测资料,以南京站为例,采用比值法和多元线性回归法对长时间序列小型蒸发皿蒸发量进行估算及效果检验,结果表明:通过比值法计算得到的月折算系数介于0.490～0.609之间,年折算系数介于0.476～0.621之间,二者平均折算系数相同,均为0.537,两种蒸发皿月蒸发量相关系数高达0.952 4,年蒸发量相关系数仅0.496 2,表明在利用比值法进行计算时,月折算系数较为合理,具有较好适用性;基于各气象因子和E-601型蒸发量建立的各月小型蒸发皿蒸发量多元线性回归方程,决定系数介于0.809～0.940,效果较理想;比值法和多元线性回归法模拟检验中,比值法年平均误差为7.9%,多元线性回归法年平均误差仅2.5%,比值法预测结果决定系数为0.861 9,回归模型决定系数高达0.953 4,可见回归模型效果更为理想。总结研究结果后,本文详细给出江苏省各台站小型及E-601型蒸发皿折算系数,为有效完整利用江苏省各台站长时间序列小型蒸发皿资料提供合理依据。

Based on synchronous observation data of small evaporation pan and E-601 evaporation pan in 16 stations,taking Nanjing station as an example,the ratio method and multiple linear regression method were used to estimate and verify small pan evaporation in the long-term time series. Results showed that： month conversion coefficient estimated by ratio method varied between 0. 490 and 0. 609,while the year conversion coefficient varied between 0. 476 and 0. 621,whereas the average conversion coefficient of the two were the same,i.e. 0. 537,the monthly data correlation coefficient of two kinds of pan evaporation was 0. 952 4,while annual data correlation coefficient was only 0. 496 2,which indicated that the monthly conversion coefficient was more reasonable and applicable when ratio method was adopted; the multiple linear regressing equation of small pan evaporation based on meteorological factors and monthly E-601 pan evaporation was ideal,while the determination coefficient was between 0. 809 and 0. 940; in the simulation test of ratio method and multiple linear regression method,annual average error of ratio method was 7. 9%,and that of multiple linear regression method was only 2. 5%,the forecasted result determinate coefficient of ratio method was 0. 861 9,and that of the multiple linear regression method was 0. 953 4 which was much better. In conclusion,small and E-601 pan evaporation conversion coefficient of each station in Jiangsu province was offered from this paper,providing reasonable basis for effectively by using long-term small pan evaporation in Jiangsu province.