城乡收入差距对社会犯罪率影响的实证分析

An Empirical Analysis of the Impact of Urban and Rural Income Gap on Social Crime

运用1997年至2016年间中国居民收入差距与犯罪率的数据,采用单位根检验和多元回归分析探求中国犯罪率增长与城乡收入差距增长之间的相关性。研究显示,城乡收入差距与犯罪率呈正相关关系,城乡收入差距每提高1%,犯罪率就会提高1.52%;城市化水平与犯罪率呈正相关关系,城市化水平每提高1%,犯罪率就提高2.25%;城市失业率与犯罪之间没有明显的相关关系;实际人均国内生产总值与犯罪率呈负相关关系,实际人均国内生产总值每提高1%,犯罪率就会降低1.07%;离婚率与犯罪率之间存在着正相关关系,离婚率每提高1%,犯罪率就会提高0.78%:文盲率与犯罪率之间有着负相关关系,文盲率每降低l%,犯罪率就会降低0.37%。最后从缩小城乡收入差距出发,为预防和控制犯罪建言献策。

This paper has used statistics that was in criminal rate and resident-income-gap of 1978 to 2016 and the co-integraton analysis of the relationship above.Using a single test in econometrics and multivariate regression analysis to reveal the correlation between China＇s crime rate and the income gap between rural and urban growth.Results show that the income gap between urban and rural and crime rates are positively related,the income gap between urban and rural for every increase of 1%,the crime rate will increase 1.52%;There is a positive correlation between the leve1 of the city and the crime rate,the level of the city every 1% increase,the crime rate will increase 2.25%;There is no significant correlation between city unemployment and crime;Real per capita GDP and the crime rate has negative correlation,Real per capita GDP increase by 1%,the crime rate will be reduced by 1.07%;There is a positive correlation between the divorce rate and crime rate,the divorce rate increase by 1%,the crime rate will increase0.78%;The illiteracy rate has a negative correlation with the crime rate. the illiteracy rate is reduced by 1% each,the crime rate will be reduced by 0.37%.Finally,this article from the two aspects of the prevention and control of crime gives policy recommendations to save our harmonious society.