族群战争的爆发：一个广义理论

The Onset of Ethnic War: A General Theory

基于两个分析性的创新:对社会事实秉持以机制为基础的理解路径和对动态交互影响的强调,作者提出了一个有关族群战争爆发的广义理论,并利用两种元机制——安全困境/螺旋模型和群体间–群体内互动——作为"元综合器",将战争的影响因素与冲突行为的直接驱动力联系起来,对散布在现有文献中的众多因素和机制加以综合,形成了一个更具整合性且动态的族群战争理论。该理论不但整合了既有文献中已经识别的众多因素和机制,而且揭示了先前被隐藏或被忽视的因素、互动和机制,由此指明未来在这些方向的探究将是硕果累累。

This paper develops a general theory about the onset of ethnic war,with two analytic innovations:a mechanism-based approach toward social facts and an emphasis on dynamic interactions.With two meta-mechanisms,namely the security dilemma/spiral model and intergroup-intragroup interactions,as meta-synthesizers,the paper brings together numerous factors and mechanisms scattered in the current literature and advances a more integrative and dynamic theory of ethnic war by linking factors with main causes of conflictual behavior via the two meta-mechanisms.The resulting theory not only integrates a multitude of factors and mechanisms identified within the existing literature but also reveals previously hidden or neglected factors,interactions,and mechanisms,thus shedding new light for future studies.