摘要
On March 11,2011, a M_W9.0 earthquake occurred in the Japan Trench, causing tremendous casualties,and attracting extensive concern. Based on the results of related research,this paper analyzes the observations,phenomena and understandings of the earthquake from varied aspects,and obtains four main conclusions.(1) The earthquake,occurring in the subduction zone in the Japan Trench located in the northwest boundary of the pacific plate has two zones of concentrated coseismic slip at different depths,and the slip in the deep zone is relatively small. Though there have been many M7. 0 historical earthquakes,slips in the shallow zone are large,but there have been few historical strong earthquakes.(2) Constrained by GPS data,the study of fault movement shows that fault movement in the Japan Trench has a background of widely distributed stability and locking( the locking zone is equivalent that of coseismic rupture zone). Perturbation occurred after the 2008 M8. 0 Hokkaido earthquake,several M7. 0 events had after slips larger than the coseismic slip,and two obvious slow slip events were recorded in 2008 and2011. Eventually,the March 9,2011 M7. 0 foreshock and the March 11,2011 M_W9.0 mainshock occurred. The pre-earthquake changing of the fault movement in the Japan Trench is quite clear.(3) Traditional precursory observation show no obvious anomaly,possibly due to monitoring reason. Anomaly before earthquake consists of high stress state in focal zone reflected by some seismic activity parameters,short period anomaly in regional ground motion,etc.(4) The analysis of physical property in focal zone aroused more scientific issues,for example,is there obvious difference between physical property in focal zone and its vicinity? Does frictional property of fault determine seismogenic ability and rupture process? Whether pre-earthquake fault movement include pre-slips? Could deep fluid affect fault movement in focal zone? Experience is the best teacher,and authors hope this paper could be a modest spur to induce others in basic research in earthquake forecast and prediction.
On March 11,2011, a M_W9.0 earthquake occurred in the Japan Trench, causing tremendous casualties,and attracting extensive concern. Based on the results of related research,this paper analyzes the observations,phenomena and understandings of the earthquake from varied aspects,and obtains four main conclusions.(1) The earthquake,occurring in the subduction zone in the Japan Trench located in the northwest boundary of the pacific plate has two zones of concentrated coseismic slip at different depths,and the slip in the deep zone is relatively small. Though there have been many M7. 0 historical earthquakes,slips in the shallow zone are large,but there have been few historical strong earthquakes.(2) Constrained by GPS data,the study of fault movement shows that fault movement in the Japan Trench has a background of widely distributed stability and locking( the locking zone is equivalent that of coseismic rupture zone). Perturbation occurred after the 2008 M8. 0 Hokkaido earthquake,several M7. 0 events had after slips larger than the coseismic slip,and two obvious slow slip events were recorded in 2008 and2011. Eventually,the March 9,2011 M7. 0 foreshock and the March 11,2011 M_W9.0 mainshock occurred. The pre-earthquake changing of the fault movement in the Japan Trench is quite clear.(3) Traditional precursory observation show no obvious anomaly,possibly due to monitoring reason. Anomaly before earthquake consists of high stress state in focal zone reflected by some seismic activity parameters,short period anomaly in regional ground motion,etc.(4) The analysis of physical property in focal zone aroused more scientific issues,for example,is there obvious difference between physical property in focal zone and its vicinity? Does frictional property of fault determine seismogenic ability and rupture process? Whether pre-earthquake fault movement include pre-slips? Could deep fluid affect fault movement in focal zone? Experience is the best teacher,and authors hope this paper could be a modest spur to induce others in basic research in earthquake forecast and prediction.
基金
sponsored by the Special Fund for Earthquake Scientific Research(201408019)
the Basic Scientific Research Program,Institute of Earth Science,CEA(2016IE0301)
