三峡库区地质灾害类型和灾害机理研究

Types and Mechanism of Geological Disasters in Three Gorges Reservoir Area

为了全面分析三峡库区地质灾害类型和灾害机理,需要对三峡库区地质灾害发育度和潜势度进行研究,得到影响二者的基础因子和影响因子,并得到二者的表达式,在此基础上使用Logistic回归模型构建地质灾害预警模型,实现库区地质灾害有效预警。实验结果证明,使用地质灾害预警模型得到三峡库区不同地质灾害发生次数分别为38次、39次、7次和13次,地震位移数据和实际数据误差低于2 mm,且有效分析了滑坡地质灾害的加速度变化规律,说明该模型能够详细分析三峡库区地质灾害类型和灾害机理,并准确预警地质灾害。

In order to comprehensively analyze the types and mechanisms of geological hazards in the Three Gorges Reservoir Area,it is necessary to study the development and potential of geological hazards in the Area,get the basic factors and influencing factors affecting them,and get their expressions.On this basis,we construct the early warning model of geological hazards by using logistic regression model to realize effective early warning of geological hazards in the Three Gorges Reservoir Area.The experimental results show that the occurrence times of different geological hazards in the Three Gorges reservoir area are 38,39,7 and 13 respectively by using the geological hazard early warning model.The error of seismic displacement data and actual data is less than 2 mm.The acceleration variation law of landslide geological hazards is effectively analyzed.It shows that the model can analyze the types and mechanism of geological hazards in detail and give accurate early warn geological disasters.