破解安徽省经济增长对传统资源型产业路径的依赖——基于安徽省投入产出表的动态分析

Cracking the Dependence of Anhui’s Economic Growth on the Path of Traditional Resource-Based Industries——Based on the Dynamic Analysis on Input-Output Table of Anhui Province

本文首先引入安徽省煤炭资源产业发展状况及其与其他42个产业部门间互动关系的评价指标,利用安徽省近几年的①投入产出表动态数据计算安徽省产业发展水平及煤炭资源型产业、有色金属及无色金属等资源型部门的增加值率及中间投入率,并测度出该三个部门与其他产业部门的消耗系数,互动系数,推动力系数和影响力系数,分析该三个资源型产业部门对安徽省经济增长主要贡献作用并探索出安徽省传统资源型产业结构未来转型路径及选择。结果显示,煤炭采选业等资源型与其他产业部门互动较强,依然是安徽省经济增长主要动力之一,但是安徽省面临当前供给侧结构性改革背景下如何实现“创新、协调、绿色、开放、共享”经济新常态发展模式,必须进行传统资源型产业部门转型升级,通过安徽省投入产出表测算结果:安徽省资源型产业延长链产业主要为医药化工化学化工、专用设备、金属冶金制造及相关服务业等。

This paper introduces the development status of coal resources industry and its evaluation index with other 42 industrial sectors in Anhui Province.The analysis of the transformation and upgrading path of resource-based industries may have a certain lag in the past five years,but the use of input-output analysis is one of the best analytical methods for industrial structure and industrial relevance.It calculates the input-output table dynamic data of the industrial development level,the value-added rate and intermediate input rate of resource-based sectors such as coal resource-based industries,non-ferrous metals,the three sectors and other industrial sectors.It analyzes the main contribution of the three resource-based industrial sectors to Anhui's economic growth and explore the future transformation path and choice of Anhui's traditional resource-based industrial structure by the consumption coefficient,interaction coefficient,driving force coefficient and influence coefficient.The results show that the resource selection of coal mining and selection industry,other industrial sectors are still strong,and it is still one of the main drivers of economic growth in Anhui Province.However,Anhui Province faces the current supply-side structural reforms to achieve"innovation,coordination,green",To open and share the new normal development model of the economy,it is necessary to carry out the transformation and upgrading of the traditional resource-based industrial sector.The results of the Input-Output Table:Anhui Province's resource-based industrial extension chain industries are mainly for pharmaceutical and chemical industries,special equipment,metallurgy,manufacturing and related services,and sou on.