厄尔尼诺事件对冀中地区气候及农业生产的影响——以河北省保定市为例

Impact of El Nino Event on Climate and Agricultural Production in Central Hebei Province——Taking Baoding City,Hebei Province as an Example

目前极端天气频发,对各地区的农业生产造成巨大损失。保定是冀中地区重要的粮食生产基地,研究厄尔尼诺事件对保定地区气温和降水的影响,对指导该地区农业生产具有重要意义。获取该地区1988~2018年气温与降水数据、农业气象灾害数据和粮食(小麦和玉米)产量数据,根据GB/T33666―2017确定该地区厄尔尼诺事件发生年,采用线性趋势和Mann-Kendall(M-K)检验方法,分析1988~2018年保定地区气温和降水的变化趋势与突变情况;利用不同季节的气温和降水距平,分析厄尔尼诺事件对该地区农业生产产生的影响;采用GIS反距离权重法差值,分析保定地区各县(市)气温和降水变化幅度的空间分布特征。得到以下结论:(1)该地区出现超强级厄尔尼诺事件2次、中级厄尔尼诺事件4次、弱级厄尔尼诺事件2次,共计8次。(2)保定地区气温呈上升趋势,降水量呈下降趋势,且通过了M-K检验。气温和降水的突变年与厄尔尼诺年耦合。(3)保定市年平均气温空间分布由东向西逐渐增强,降水量变化空间分布由北向南逐渐减弱。保定西部暖干趋势最为显著,东部偏干但升温不明显。(4)不同等级的厄尔尼诺事件,4个季节的气候变化差异较大。厄尔尼诺事件发生年,农业灾害发生比例增加,且造成当年夏秋粮减产。

At present,extreme weather occurs frequently,causing huge losses to agricultural production. Baoding is an important grain production area in central Hebei Province. The research on the effect of El Nino Event on temperature and precipitation in Baoding area is of great significance to agricultural production. The data of temperature and precipitation,agrometeorological disasters and grains (wheat and maize) yield in this area from 1988 to 2018 were obtained. The year of El Nino Event according to GB/T 33666-2017 was determined. Using linear trend and Mann-Kendall (M-K) test method,the change trend and sudden change of temperature and precipitation in Baoding from 1988 to 2018 were analyzed. Using temperature and precipitation anomaly in different seasons,the El Nino Event’s impacts on agricultural production were analyzed. The spatial distribution characteristics of the change ranges in each county of Baoding were analyzed by inverse distance weight method based on GIS. The results showed that there were eight El Nino Event in Baoding,including two super-strong ones,four intermediate ones and two weak ones. The temperature in Baoding tended to rise,and the precipitation showed the downward trend, which passed the M-K test. The sudden change years of temperature and precipitation was coupled with El Nino years. The spatial distribution of annual mean air temperature in Baoding gradually increased from east to west, and that of precipitation gradually weakened from north to south. The trend of warm and dry in West Baoding was the most significant. The eastern was dry but the temperature rise was not obvious. The climatic variations of El Nino Event of different grades were quite different in four seasons. And the proportion of agricultural disasters in the year of El Nino Event increased,which resulted in the reduction of grain production in summer and autumn of those years.