考虑时空相关性的多风电场出力场景生成方法

Wind Power Scenario Generation for Multiple Wind Farms Considering Temporal and Spatial Correlations

在大规模风电接入电力系统的背景下,考虑时空相关性的多风电场出力场景的应用在解决电力系统日前调度问题中具有重要意义。针对多风电场提出一种出力场景生成方法。该方法以多元正态分布函数和Copula函数为基础,建立了风功率时空相关性模型,综合分析了多风电场出力的时空相关性。依据上述相关性分析结果,结合蒙特卡洛抽样并引入Copula理论中的条件分布,生成大量具有时空相关性的风电场景。该方法生成的场景能够更好地模拟多风电场出力的相关关系。最后,以青海省风电场提供的风功率作为样本进行对比仿真,验证了所提方法的可行性与有效性。

In the context of large-scale wind power access to power system, the application of wind power scenarios of multiple wind farms considering temporal and spatial correlations has great significance in solving the problem of day-ahead power system scheduling. This paper comprehensively analyzed the temporal and spatial correlations and proposed a method generating scenarios of multiple wind farms. A model considering temporal and spatial correlations based on multivariate normal distribution function and Copula function was established to analyze the temporal and spatial correlations of multiple wind farms. According to above correlation analysis results, the conditional distribution function based on Copula theory was combined with Monte Carlo sampling to generate a large number of wind power scenarios with temporal and spatial correlations. The generated scenarios can simulate the correlation between wind farms better. Finally, a comparative simulation of actual wind farms in Qinghai Province was carried out to verify feasibility and effectiveness of the proposed method.