枪械可靠性试验统计方案与参数估计研究

Research on Statistical Scheme and Parameter Estimation of Firearms Reliability Test

为了提高对枪械可靠性指标试验考核的系统性,对枪械故障分布规律进行了建模研究和特征分析,说明在使用寿命内可以用指数分布来近似;以指数分布为基础,运用可靠性工程理论和数学方法,开展了枪械定时截尾和序贯截尾两类试验统计方案的研究,举例说明了各试验要素的量化确定方法;对于定时截尾试验提出了枪械可靠性要求常用特征量故障率的点估计与区间估计公式,以便于定量地把握枪械的可靠性特征;通过实例应用验证了枪械可靠性试验统计方案与参数估计方法的可行性和有效性。

In order to improve the system of the evaluation test of fireamrs reliability index,the law of firearms fault distribution has been modeled and analyzed.The fault distribution of firearms approximates to exponential distribution within service life.Based on exponential distribution,using the reliability engineering theory and mathematical method,the statistical scheme research of the timing truncation test and the sequential truncation test have been carried out.The quantitative determination method of experiment elements have been given and illustrated for each statistical scheme.In the timing truncation test,the formula of failure rate’s point estimation and interval estimation have been derived so as to quantitatively grasp the reliability characteristics of firearms.Finally,the feasibility and validity of the statistical scheme and parameter estimation method of firearms reliability test have been verified by an example application.