基于灰色系统理论的财务风险评价方法

Financial Risk Assessment Method Based on Grey System Theory

准确的财务风险评价是预防和化解企业财务危机的有效措施.文中提出了一种基于灰色系统理论的企业财务风险评价方法.该方法采用灰色系统理论构建财务评价模型,从企业财务指标和非财务指标两个方面生成评价指标体系.基于混沌模型对粒子群进行改进,采用改进后的粒子群算法对灰色系统权值进行优化.最后以某房地产企业数据进行了实验分析.结果表明,该方法能够有效完成企业财务风险评价,且具有较高的评价准确度.

Accurate financial risk assessment is an effective measure to prevent and resolve corporate financial crisis. In this study, a method of enterprise financial risk assessment based on grey system theory is proposed. The method uses the grey system theory to construct the financial evaluation model, and generates the evaluation index system from the two aspects of enterprise financial indicators and non-financial indicators. The particle swarm is improved based on the chaotic model, and the improved particle swarm optimization algorithm is used to optimize the weight of the gray system. Finally, an experimental analysis is carried out with a real estate enterprise data. The results show that the method can effectively complete the financial risk assessment of enterprises and has high evaluation accuracy.