基于Logistic模型的大型邮轮疫情预测分析

A Prediction and Analysis of Epidemic Outbreaks on Large Cruise Ships Based on a Logistic Model

随着新冠肺炎疫情的暴发,大型邮轮作为海上容纳大量船员和乘客的场所,其疫情传播速度和应急反应机制受到普遍关注。分析"钻石公主号"邮轮的疫情传播特征,建立了基于Logistic传染病模型的大型邮轮疫情时域发展情形,以不同传播速率为变量,通过拟合不同发展情形下Logistic模型中传染病增长率的特定值,对"钻石公主号"邮轮在未及时疏散旅客和未采任何取防控措施这2种情形下患病人数发展趋势进行了预测,结果显示,上述2种情形患病人数远高于实际患病人数,其中在未采任何预防控措施的情形下的传播速度更高,显示出相关方在母港采取的隔离及疏散措施具有一定效果,但在船隔离仍不是最佳选择。从邮轮设计、公约完善、应急预案建设等方面提出了建议,为大型邮轮疫情防控提供参考。

With the outbreak of COVID-19 epidemic,its transmission and emergency response of large cruise ships,which accommodate a large number of crew members and passengers at sea,have received widespread attention. The case of"Diamond Princess"is studied,and a logistic model is developed to analyze epidemic outbreaks based on the time-domain development of the epidemic on large cruise ships,take different rates of transmission as variables,and by fitting the logistic model to specific values of the growth rate of infectious diseases under different development scenarios,the logistic model is utilized to effectively discover a growth in the case on the cruise ship,"Diamond Princess". A projection of the trend in the number of cases of illness on board the Diamond Princess,both in the absence of timely evacuation of passengers and in the absence of any preventive and control measures,shows that the number of cases is much higher than the actual number of cases,with a higher rate of transmission in the absence of any preventive and control measures,indicating that quarantine and evacuation measures adopted by the ports proved to be effective. However,onboard quarantine is still not the best option. Therefore,suggestions on cruise ship design,convention improvement,and emergency response are provided as references for epidemic prevention and control on large cruise ships.