观众奖赏、损失框定与关系解冻的起源——尼克松对华关系缓和的动力机制及其战略竞争管控启示

The Audience Reward-Cost Framework and Detente in International Relations:Motivations behind Nixon’s Rapprochement to China and Implications for the Management of Strategic Competition

20世纪70年代初的中美关系解冻结束了双方此前二十多年的相互敌对。在美国反对对华缓和的国内政治势力依然强大、政治精英与官僚体系仍持保守态度、主要盟友与竞争对手对改变现状容易产生疑惧心态的情况下,时任美国总统的尼克松为何会主动发起对华关系解冻的进程?既有的战略环境诱导论、内外要素协同论、威胁认知调整论以及极端还原论都无法全面解答这一问题。对此,文章提出解释一国领导人与敌对国关系解冻动因的观众奖赏与损失框定的分析框架。历史案例的过程追踪表明,尼克松对华关系解冻的动机在于,通过重塑国内观众偏好、提升个人政治形象以获得国内观众奖赏。决策参考点从维持现状到获得观众奖赏的转变,是尼克松从早期的信号试探过渡到冒险推行个人化外交的原因。文章通过探索观众理论和前景理论在合作性情境中的运用,建构领导人解冻两国关系起源的理论框架,并进行经验验证,对消解中美关系“修昔底德陷阱”的悲观决定论调,塑造对方偏好以实现战略性合作,以及渐进式克服意图不确定性具有一定政策启发。

The rapprochement of bilateral China-U.S.relations brought an end to more than 20 years of hostile relations between the two countries.At the time,domestic political interests against a moderation of relations with China were powerful,with political elites and the bureaucracy both maintaining a conservative approach.Their key allies and competitors alike would easily doubt efforts to change the status quo.Given these circumstances,why would then President Nixon proactively initiate a rapprochement policy of relations with China?Theories based on the strategic environment,on internal and external factors,on changing perceptions of threats,and on extreme reductionism are not able to offer a comprehensive answer to this question.This article introduces an analytical framework to explain a leader’s decision to strengthen ties with an adversary based on audience reward and cost-framing.A careful review of the historical record shows that the main factor driving Nixon to advance the detente with China was a re-shaping of domestic audience preferences.Through this process,he was able to embellish his political image and accrue audience benefits in turn.The reason that Nixon went from an initial testing of the waters by sending out signals to a risky,high profile personalized diplomacy was that he observed that a change from the status quo brought about audience benefits.The article explores the integrated application of audience theory and prospect theory,constructing a theoretical framework explaining the origins of a leader’s decision of the rapprochement policy.It further tests the model,refuting a pessimistic and deterministic“Thucydides Trap”understanding of China-U.S.relations.This offers lessons for how shaping preferences of the other party might be used to achieve strategic cooperation,and gradually overcome uncertainty in policy decisions.