南海缘何再度成为大国角逐的舞台

Why Has the South China Sea Become a Competing Arena for the Great Powers?

自15世纪末地理大发现以来,南海作为东西方贸易和文明交流、融汇的重要地区,一直都是大国角逐之地。当前,南海的大国竞争以中美较量为主,其他域外大国竞相参与,进行对规则创设、地区力量对比优势、区域安全架构领导地位、话语权及主导权的争夺。2010年以来,南海聚集了当前国际体系中几乎所有主要大国力量,除美国外,日本、印度、英国、法国、德国、俄罗斯甚至澳大利亚都在南海地区拥有各种形式的军事存在。究其原因,主要是南海的地缘位置决定了其在全球地缘政治格局中的特殊地位,同时也因为扩张型海权在西方世界经久不衰。此外,部分声索国的政策调整、地区和国际权力结构重塑、中美力量对比变化及美国对中国南海政策的"过激反应"也是重要因素。近年来,南海成为美国将国际关系推向大国竞争的试验场,中美双方在南海的竞争将长期存在,且会随着更多域外国家的介入而变得愈加复杂。未来,中国应力求保"稳",以"南海行为准则"磋商契机、海上务实合作为重要手段,倡导美国及其盟友和伙伴国建立涉南海问题的对话沟通机制,促使南海局势朝趋稳向好的态势发展,通过海上硬实力和软实力建设"双管齐下",最终赢得南海斗争的主动权。

Since the great geographical discovery at the end of the 15th century,the South China Sea,as an important area for trade and cultural exchanges between the East and the West,has always been a competing arena among the great powers.At present,the competition over the South China Sea is dominated by China and the United Sates,with the participation of other great powers outside the region,all vying for the rule creation power,comparative advantage of regional power,leadership of regional security architecture,an increased voice and dominance.Since 2010,almost all the major powers in the current international system have gathered around the South China Sea.Besides the United States,other nations such as Japan,India,Britain,France,Germany,Russia and even Australia all have various forms of military presence in the region.The main reason is that the geographical position of the South China Sea determines its special status in the global geopolitical pattern,and at the same time,it is also because the expanding sea power has been long-lasting in the Western world.In addition,the policy adjustment of some claimant countries,the reshaping of regional and international power structure,the change of the balance of power between China and the United States,and the"overreaction"of the United States to China’s South China Sea policy are also important factors.In recent years,the South China Sea has become a testing ground for the United States to push international relations into competition among major powers.The China-U.S.competition in the South China Sea will exist for a long time,and become more complicated with the intervention of other extraterritorial countries.In the future,China should strive to maintain"stability",take advantage of the consultations on the"South China Sea code of conduct"and the maritime practical cooperation,call on the United States and its allies and partners to establish a dialogue and communication mechanism for the South China Sea issues,guide the situation in the South China Sea to become stable and positive,and finally keep the upper hand in the South China Sea struggle through the"two-pronged"development of the maritime hard power and soft power.