企业真实财务风险水平衡量研究

Research on Measuring the Real Financial Risk of Enterprises

财务风险衡量的真实程度对微观和宏观两个层面的金融及经济政策选择、资源配置结构和使用效率、风险管理体系的建立都具有直接的影响。遗憾的是,流行于国内外的常规财务风险衡量方法难以反映财务风险的真实水平。重构企业财务风险衡量体系以反映其真实水平,需要做三方面的创新:一是重新界定财务风险概念,把经营风险纳入财务风险体系,扩展财务风险边界,实现从“债务风险观”向基于财务报表的“大财务风险观”转变。二是重新选择财务风险衡量指标,建立覆盖战略风险、市场风险、运营风险和债务风险(狭义的财务风险)四类整体性经济风险的综合财务风险衡量指标体系。三是重新确定财务风险衡量指标计算口径,解决信息混淆对真实衡量财务风险的干扰。

The real degree of measuring financial risk has a direct impact on the choice of financial and economic policies,the structure and efficiency of resource allocation,as well as the establishment of risk management system at both micro and macro levels.However,it is a pity that conventional methods of measuring financial risk popular around the world are difficult to reflect the real level of financial risk.In order to reconstruct the measurement system of the company’s financial risk reflecting real level,it is necessary to innovate from three aspects.Firstly,redefine the concept of financial risk,incorporating the business risk into the financial risk system and expanding the boundary of financial risk,which enables the transition from a view of“Debt Risk”to“General Financial Risk”based on financial statements.Secondly,reselect financial risk indicators and establish a comprehensive measurement system,which covers four types of overall economic risk including strategic risk,market risk,operational risk and debt risk(financial risk,in a narrow sense).Thirdly,reconfirm statistical dimensions of financial risk indicators to solve the interference of information confusion on the accuracy of measurement.