地铁联络通道冻结法施工安全风险评价

Safety Risk Assessment for a Subway Connecting Passage Constructed by Freezing Method

为评价地铁联络通道冻结法施工安全风险,文章依据相关文献并结合已有工程经验和类似工程记录,识别出联络通道冻结法施工四个阶段的主要风险要素,建立了评价指标体系,提出了一种基于层次分析法(AHP)、模糊综合评价法(FCE)和贝叶斯网络法(BN)的联络通道冻结法施工安全评价方法。首先采用层次分析法计算各风险事件的相对权重,采用风险经济损失值描述风险事件的影响后果,采用贝叶斯网络计算风险事件的概率等级分数;然后结合风险经济损失值和概率等级分数,并采用梯形隶属函数来计算风险事件对风险水平的隶属度,将风险事件的权重与风险事件对风险水平的隶属度进行模糊综合运算,可得出联络通道冻结法施工的总体风险水平;最后以兰州轨道交通1号线为例进行实例研究,得到该工程总体风险等级为低风险,评价结果基本能反应实际情况。

In order to assess the safety risk of a subway connecting passage constructed by freezing method,based on relevant references,existing project experience and similar project records,this paper identifies major risk fac⁃tors in the four construction stages of a subway connecting passage by freezing method,establishes an evaluation indi⁃cator system,and proposes a safety risk assessment method for a subway connecting passage constructed by freezing method based on analytic hierarchy process(AHP),fuzzy comprehensive evaluation(FCE)and Bayesian network(BN).Firstly,it uses AHP to calculate the relative weights of various risk events,uses the risk-related economic loss value to describe the impact consequences of risk events,and uses BN to calculate the probability rating scores of risk events.Secondly,combining the risk-related economic loss value with probability rating score,it uses the trape⁃zoidal membership function to calculate the membership of risk event to risk level,conducts the fuzzy comprehen⁃sive operation for the weight of risk event and the membership of risk event to risk level,and obtains the overall risk level of a connecting passage constructed by freezing method.Finally,taking Lanzhou Metro Line 1 as an example,the assessed overall risk level of the project is low risk,basically reflecting the actual situation.