基于AHP层次分析的云南能源安全预测预警机制

Energy Security Prediction and Early Warning Mechanism Based on Analytic Hierarchy Process in Yunnan Province

能源预测预警为当前大多数国家和地区安全战略的一个重要内容,目前云南能源资源呈现出总量规模可观、开发潜力较大、结构优劣并存、运输成本偏高等特点,能源安全在一定程度上存在异质性与脆弱性。通过AHP分析法对云南能源安全预测预警机制进行定性与定量分析,分析发现通过有效监测该区域能源输送、能源政策体制、土地影响、能源价格、突变风险、市场响应及对外依存度等7个关键维度的变化,客观评估云南能源安全的整体现状。

Energy forecasting and early-warning is an important part of security strategy in most countries and regions.At present,energy resources in Yunnan Province are characterized by considerable total scale,great potential for development,coexistence of advantages and disadvantages in structure and high transportation cost.Energy security has heterogeneity and vulnerability to a certain extent.Through the qualitative and quantitative analysis of forecasting and warning mechanism of energy security in Yunnan Province by AHP,it is found that the overall status of energy security in Yunnan Province can be objectively evaluated by effectively monitoring the changes of 7 key dimensions,such as energy transmission,energy policy system,land impact,energy price,sudden change risk,market response and external dependence.