阿克苏河流域气候变化特征及其对农业生产的影响

The characteristics of climate change and its influence on the agricultural production in Aksu river basin

利用1967—2019年阿克苏、柯坪气象站逐日气温、日照时数等气候数据和部分农业数据,按月、季节和年进行统计,采用一元线性回归、累计距平、Mann-Kendall(M-K)趋势分析和突变检验等方法,试图揭示阿克苏河流域气候变化对其农业气候资源和农业生产条件的影响。结果显示:(1)1967—2019年研究区气温增长,阿克苏、柯坪站增温倾向率为0.515、0.023℃/10a;阿克苏、柯坪站日照时数呈减少趋势,倾向率分别为3.806、-32.916 h/10a;阿克苏站气温在1997年发生突变,柯坪站日照时数在1990年发生一次突变。(2)1967—2019年间研究区≥10℃积温的平均值为4240℃/d,平均持续时间为210.6 d;1997年发生突变后,≥10℃积温的平均值从1967—1996年的4143℃/d增加到4369℃/d,持续日数从209 d增加到214.9 d,对农作物生长营造了良好的生长环境。(3)近40年研究区单位面积化肥施用量从1978年的63.8 kg/hm^(2)增加到2018年的1369 kg/hm^(2),棉花单产量从1967年的288 kg/hm^(2)增加到2018年的1218 kg/hm^(2),以约262 kg/10a的倾向率增加。棉花播种期提前了9 d,停止生长期推迟了3 d,生育期延长了6 d。(4)随着研究区气候的变化、技术的不断改善,气温的变暖会提高产量和品质,有利于发展阿克苏河流域农业生产。

To investigate the impact of climate change on agricultural production in the Aksu river basin,climate data of daily air temperature,hours of sunshine,and some of the agriculture data from Aksu and Keping weather stations during 1967−2019 were analyzed for month,season and year by using methods of the single linear regression,accumulative anomaly,Mann-Kendall(M-K)trend analysis,and mutation test.The results show that:(1)The temperature in the study area increased from 1967 to 2019,and the warming tendency rate of Aksu and Keping stations were 0.515 and 0.023℃/10a,respectively;the sunshine hours of Aksu and Keping stations showed a decreasing trend,and the trend rates were 3.806 and-32.916 h/10a,respectively.The temperature of Aksu station had a sudden change in 1997,and the sunshine hours of Keping station had a sudden change in 1990.(2)From 1967 to 2019,the average accumulated temperature≥10℃in the study area was 4240℃/d,and the average duration was 210.6 d.After the mutation occurred in 1997,the average value of accumulated temperature≥10℃increased from 4143℃/d to 4369℃/d from 1967 to 1996,and the duration of days increased from 209 d to 214.9 d,which created a good growth environment for crops.(3)In recent 40 years,the amount of chemical fertilizer per unit area in the study area increased from 63.8 kg/hm^(2)in 1978 to 1369 kg/hm^(2)in 2018,an increase of 1304 kg/hm^(2);the cotton yield per unit area increased from 288 kg/hm^(2)in 1967 to 1218 kg/hm^(2)in 2018,with an increase of 930.2 kg/hm^(2)and a tendency rate of 262 kg/10a.The sowing date of cotton was advanced by 9 d,while the stopping growth period was delayed by 3 d,thus the growth period was extended by 6 d.(4)With the change of climate in the research area and the continuous development of technology,the warming of temperature increases the yield and quality,which is conducive to the development of agricultural production in theAksu river basin.