中国碳排放的空间格局及分布动态演进——基于县域碳排放数据的实证研究

The Spatial Pattern and Distribution Dynamic Evolution of Carbon Emissions in China: Empirical Study Based on County Carbon Emission Data

基于中国1997—2017年2 725个县域单元的碳排放数据,采用标准差椭圆、Theil指数三阶段嵌套分解和Kernel密度估计等方法,全面考察中国碳排放的空间格局及分布动态演进。研究发现:(1)中国碳排放由1997年的30.97亿t增长到2012年的93.08亿t,年均增长达到7.86%,而后围绕93亿t上下波动,未出现下降的拐点。(2)在空间分布上,中国碳排放呈现东高西低的分布格局,表现出东北-西南方向向心集聚、西北-东南方向空间发散的趋势。(3)在空间差异上,Theil指数三阶段嵌套分解结果表明,中国碳排放的总体差异呈下降趋势,地级行政单元内部差异的贡献率由1997年的43%增加到2017年49%,成为中国碳排放总体区域差异的主要来源。(4)在分布动态演进上,中国县域单元的碳排放存在空间收敛模式,具有显著的空间正相关性,地区间的相互作用影响中国碳排放的未来空间分布。

Clarifying the spatial distribution, spatial differences and evolutionary trends of China ’s carbon emissions has important reference value for grasping the basic situation of China’s carbon emissions and formulating a carbon peak action plan before 2030. Based on the carbon emission data of 2725 counties in China from 1997 to 2017, this paper uses standard deviation ellipse, three-stage nested inequality decomposition by Theil index and Kernel density estimation methods to comprehensively investigate the spatial pattern and dynamic evolution of China’s carbon emissions. The study found that: 1) China’s carbon emissions increased from 3.097 billion tons in 1997 to 9.308 billion tons in 2012, with an average annual growth rate of 7.86%, and then fluctuated around 9.3 billion tons, without a turning point in decline. 2) In terms of spatial distribution,China’s carbon emissions present a pattern of high in the east and low in the west, showing a trend of centripetal accumulation in the northeast-southwest direction and spatial divergence in the northwest-southeast direction. 3) In terms of spatial differences, the three-stage decomposition results of Theil index show that the overall difference in carbon emissions in China is on a downward trend, and the contribution rate of differences within prefecture-level administrative units has increased from 43% in 1997 to 49% in 2017. The main source of overall differences in China’s carbon emissions. 4) In terms of the dynamic evolution of the distribution, the carbon emissions of China’s county-level units have a spatial convergence pattern, with significant spatial positive correlation, indicating that the interaction between regions affects the future spatial distribution of China’s carbon emissions. Based on research findings, this article proposes to adjust the energy industry structure, promote the development of low-carbon industries, formulate reasonable regional joint prevention and control policies for carbon emission reduction, and establish a sound carbon trading market.