基于突变理论的内蒙古巴彦淖尔市凌洪灾害风险评估

Risk Assessment of Ice Flood Disaster in Bayan Nur of Inner Mongolia Based on Catastrophe Theory

黄河内蒙古段凌洪灾害频发,凌情复杂多变,防凌除险难度极大,因此凌洪灾害的风险评估是开展防凌工作的重要部分。选取内蒙古巴彦淖尔市沿黄5个旗县区为风险区,通过分析凌洪灾害驱动机理,基于灾害学和突变理论建立灾害风险评估体系,得到各风险区的风险等级。结果表明,各风险区风险等级随黄河过境顺序呈逐级递减的态势,其中磴口县(0.956)属极高风险地区,杭锦后旗(0.923)、临河区(0.907)属高风险地区,乌拉特前旗(0.899)、五原县(0.885)属中等风险地区。突变评估结果与模糊优选法评价结果基本一致,且与历史险情统计基本吻合,验证了突变理论评价结果的合理性,可为巴彦淖尔市防凌减灾工作的科学规划、合理部署提供参考。

Ice flood disasters occur frequently in Inner Mongolia section of the Yellow River, and the situation of ice flood disaster is complex and changeable. Therefore, the risk assessment of ice flood disaster is an important indicator for the development of ice flood disaster prevention. Five counties along the Yellow River in Bayan Nur City, Inner Mongolia were selected as risk areas. By analyzing the driving mechanism of ice flood disaster, a disaster risk assessment system was established based on disaster science and catastrophe theory. The risk levels of each risk area were obtained by catastrophe model calculation. The results show that the risk level of each risk area decreases gradually with the Yellow River transit sequence, and Dengkou County( 0.956) is a very high risk area. Hangjin Rear Banner( 0.923) and Linhe District( 0.907) are high risk areas;Ulat Front Banner( 0.899), Wuyuan County( 0.885) belong to medium risk areas. The catastrophe evaluation results are basically consistent with the fuzzy optimal selection method, and are basically consistent with the historical risk statistics, which verifies the reliability of the catastrophe theory evaluation results. The results can provide a reference for scientific planning and reasonable deployment of disaster prevention and mitigation in Bayan Nur City.