中国OFDI与东道国的对外贸易流向:平衡抑或失衡

Foreign Trade Flows between China s OFDI and Host Countries:Balance or Imbalance

基于2003—2018年中国对外直接投资(OFDI)与世界其他国家贸易流向特征数据,实证考察中国OFDI对东道国对外贸易流向的影响及其作用机制。研究结果表明:中国OFDI不仅显著促进了东道国与中国单向贸易和双向贸易,也促进了东道国与世界其他国家的单向贸易和双向贸易;采用建交时间作为OFDI的工具变量处理潜在内生性问题后,结果仍然成立。进一步分析发现,中国OFDI可以促进东道国与中国、东道国与世界其他国家的垂直双向贸易;异质性分析发现,中国OFDI促进了“一带一路”沿线国家与中国的单向贸易和双向贸易,也促进了非“一带一路”沿线国家与中国的单向贸易和双向贸易;机制分析发现,中国OFDI可以通过提升东道国对外开放度和外商投资潜力水平来促进其与中国、与世界其他国家的贸易流向。本研究为驳斥“中国威胁论”提供了经验证据,并从持续推进中国对外投资战略、促进东道国贸易流向等方面提出政策建议。

Based on the data of China s outbound foreign direct investment(OFDI)and the trade flow characteristic data of other countries from 2003 to 2018,this paper empirically investigates the impact of China s OFDI on the foreign trade flow of host countries and its mechanism.The results show that China s OFDI has significantly promoted not only the one-way trade and two-way trade between host countries and China,but also the one-way trade and two-way trade between host countries and other countries of the world.Taking the establishment time of diplomatic relations as the instrumental variable of OFDI to deal with the potential endogenous problems,the result is still valid.Further analysis shows that China s OFDI can promote the vertical two-way trade between host countries and China,and between host countries and other countries of the world.The heterogeneity analysis shows that China s OFDI promotes the one-way trade and two-way trade between countries along the“Belt and Road”and China and between countries not along the“Belt and Road”and China.Mechanism analysis shows that China s OFDI can promote its trade flow with China and other countries of the world by promoting the openness and the potential level of foreign investment of host countries.This study provides empirical evidence to refute the“China threat theory”,and puts forward policy suggestions from the aspects of continuously promoting China s OFDI strategy and enhancing the trade flow of host countries.