水风光互补系统灵活性需求量化及协调优化模型

Flexibility demand quantification and optimal operation model of water-wind-solar complementary system

利用水电等灵活性调节电源平抑间歇性风光发电是解决新能源规模化并网消纳的重要途径。依托云南电网实际工程,提出灵活性需求量化方法,采用分位点确定了风光电站集群出力概率分布的取值变化区间,生成不同概率的出力场景集,以量化描述面临计划的灵活性需求;集成6种灵活性调节指标,构建了灵活性裕量期望最大和不足期望最小模型,能够动态适应不同场景的水风光互补调度需求。通过实际数据分析了灵活性需求量化的准确性,以及不同来水条件、新能源接入比例、风光装机比例、水电机组特性、调峰需求对灵活性的影响,与预留备用容量方法相比,本文模型能够根据灵活性需求变化给出多类型电源互补调度方案。

Using flexible resources to adjust fluctuation of intermittent wind and solar generation is an important way to solve large-scale consumption of new energy.Based on the actual project of Yunnan wind, photovoltaic and hydropower complementary system, a quantitative method of flexibility requirement is proposed in this paper.The quantile method is used to determine the output interval and generate output scenario sets of different probability, which may quantitatively describe the flexibility requirements facing the plan.Integrate six flexibility indexes and construct the model of maximum expected flexibility margin and minimum expected flexibility deficiency to adapt to the wind, photovoltaic and hydropower complementary scheduling in different scenarios dynamically.Through an example of practical project, the accuracy of flexibility requirement quantification is analyzed, as well as the impact of water inflows, proportion of new energy, the ratio between wind and photovoltaic installed capacity, characteristics of hydro turbine, and the requirement of peak shaving on flexibility.Compared with the reserve capacity method, the proposed model can provide a complementary operation schemes for multi-type power plants under different flexibility requirements of wind and photovoltaic power generation.