数字经济与共同富裕的耦合协调及驱动机制——基于湖北省地级市的探讨

The Coupling Coordination and Driving Mechanism between the Digital Economy and Common Prosperity——Based on the Discussion of Prefecture-level Cities in Hubei Province

本文基于2011—2019年湖北省12个地级市的面板数据,以CRITIC-熵权-TOPSIS模型测算了相应地级市的数字经济发展水平和共同富裕水平。在此基础上通过耦合协调度模型进行耦合协调分析,并通过趋势面分析和标准差椭圆等方法进行时空演进分析,最后通过固定效应模型、中介效应模型等进行驱动机制分析。研究发现:(1)数字经济与共同富裕间形成了良性互动的协调发展模式,并随着时间的推移逐渐演化为“一超多强”的空间分布格局;(2)数字经济在直接驱动共同富裕的同时能够通过产业结构升级进行中介传导进而驱动共同富裕的发展,具体表现为加速产业转型、推动产业结构高级化和合理化;(3)数字经济对共同富裕的驱动作用呈现出明显的时空异质性。基于此,本文建议以政策引导加强数字化建设,并因地制宜构建特色产业结构体系,同时完善社会保障制度营造良好的社会经济环境,进而实现数字经济与共同富裕的双轨同步。

Based on the panel data of 12 prefecture-level cities in Hubei Province from 2011 to 2019, this paper calculates the level of digital economy development and common prosperity of the corresponding cities by using the CRITIC-ENTROPY WEIGHT-TOPSIS model. On this basis, the coupling coordination analysis is carried out with the coupling coordination degree model, the spatiotemporal evolution analysis is carried out with trend plane analysis and standard deviation ellipse, and finally the driving mechanism is analyzed by the fixed effect model and the mediation effect model. The results show that:(1) the digital economy and common prosperity have formed a coordinated development model of benign interaction, and gradually evolved into a spatial distribution pattern of "one superpower and many powers" over time;(2) the digital economy can directly drive common prosperity, meanwhile intermediating through industrial structure upgrading to drive the development of common prosperity;(3) the driving effect of the digital economy on common prosperity shows obvious temporal and spatial heterogeneity. Based on the above conclusions, we propose strengthening digital development with policy guidance, building a characteristic industry structure system according to local conditions, improving the social security system to create a sound socio-economic environment, for the deep integration of digital economy and common prosperity.