技术贸易对中国产业结构升级的影响分析——基于省级面板数据的实证

Analysis of the Impact of Technology Trade on the Upgrading of China’s Industrial Structure:Empirical Evidence Based on Provincial Panel Data

本文采用固定效应模型、中介效应模型和门槛效应模型,选取2010—2018年中国30个省(市、自治区)的技术贸易数据和产业结构升级指数,实证研究了技术贸易对产业结构升级的影响及相应的中介作用机制。研究结果表明:(1)技术贸易能够推动产业结构高级化、合理化发展,对产业结构升级具有显著的促进作用;进一步研究发现,在技术市场发展水平高的地区和非东部地区,技术贸易对产业结构升级的影响更为显著;此外,通过门槛研究发现,当技术贸易超过一定的门槛值,其对产业结构升级的影响会显著变小。(2)技术贸易能够通过技术创新来推动产业结构的升级。本文揭示了技术贸易对产业结构升级的影响机制,明确了产业结构高级化、合理化的发展路径,为技术贸易与产业结构升级的协调发展开辟了新思路。

In this paper,the fixed effect model,the mediation effect model and the threshold effect model are used to select the technology trade data and industrial structure upgrading index of 30 provinces(cities) in China from 2010 to 2018,and empirically study the impact of technology trade on industrial structure upgrading and the corresponding mediation mechanism. The research results show that:(1) Technology trade can promote the advanced and rational development of industrial structure,and has a significant role in promoting industrial structure upgrading;Further research found that in areas with high level of technology market development and non-eastern regions,the impact of technology trade on industrial structure upgrading is more significant;In addition,through the threshold study,it is found that when technology trade exceeds a certain threshold value,its impact on industrial structure upgrading will become significantly smaller.(2)Technology trade can promote the upgrading of industrial structure through technological innovation. This paper reveals the impact mechanism of technology trade on industrial structure upgrading,clarifies the development path of industrial structure upgrading and rationalization,and opens up new ideas for the coordinated development of technology trade and industrial structure upgrading.