西北干旱荒漠地区退耕还林还草工程综合效益评价

Comprehensive Benefit Evaluation on the Project of Converting Farmland to Forestland and Grassland in Arid Desert Area of Northwest China

为对西北干旱荒漠地区新一轮退耕还林还草工程的实施提供科学指导,以吐鲁番市为研究区域,建立包含表征该区域特点的15个指标的综合效益评价指标体系,基于云模型与变异系数法组合确定指标权重,运用比重法无量纲化指标数据,采用加成综合法进行退耕工程综合效益评价分析,并通过灰色系统预测模型GM(1,1)对2021—2025年生态效益、经济效益、社会效益和政策响应指数进行了预测。结果表明:(1)在2004—2019年,综合效益指数逐年提高,新一轮退耕提升幅度是前一轮的两倍。(2)森林覆盖率提高、水土流失治理面积扩大、农民人均纯收入增加和人均林业产值增加,是生态效益和经济效益提高的主要因素。(3)退耕工程的实施促使产业结构和就业结构呈良性发展趋势。退耕所涉农户再退耕意愿的提升巩固了退耕成果,使其具有长效性。(4) 2021—2025年的生态效益、经济效益、社会效益和政策响应指数预测值均呈上升趋势,且经济效益指数>政策响应指数>生态效益指数>社会效益指数。依据预测结果,西北干旱荒漠地区在新一轮退耕工程的实施中应以生态建设为重点,加强生态补偿和乡村振兴战略的有效衔接,促进农业转移人口市民化,实现生态、经济、社会和政策响应间的协调发展。

To provide scientific guidance of a new round of the implementation of returning farmland to forestland and grassland in arid desert area of northwest China, Turpan City was selected as study area, a comprehensive benefit evaluation index system was established based on 15 indicators which represented the characteristics of the region. The index weights were determined based on combination of cloud model and the variation coefficient method, the method of proportion method was used to make index data dimensionless, the additive synthesis method was used to evaluate and analyze the comprehensive benefit of farmland conversion project, and the ecological benefit, economic benefit, social benefit and policy response index were predicted by grey system prediction model GM(1,1) from 2021 to 2025. The results showed that:(1) from 2004 to 2019, the comprehensive benefit index increased year by year, and the new round of farmland conversion increased two times as much as the previous round;(2) the increase of forest coverage rate, the expansion of soil erosion control area, the increase of rural per capita net income and the increase of the total output value of forestry industry were the main factors contributing to the improvement of ecological and economic benefits;(3) the implementation of the project promoted the positive development trend of industrial structure and employment structure;the improvement of the farmers′ willingness to return to farmland consolidated the achievements and made them have a long-term effect;(4) from 2021 to 2025, the predicted values of ecological benefit, economic benefit, social benefit and policy response index showed an upward trend with the order of economic benefit index>policy response index>ecological benefit index>social benefit index. According to the prediction results, ecological construction should be the key point in the implementation of the new round of farmland conversion projects in the arid desert areas of northwest China, the effective connection between ecological compensation and rural revitalization strategies should be strengthened, the citizenization of the migrant agricultural population should be promoted, in order to realize the coordinated development among ecological, economic, social and policy responses.