南疆暴雨研究进展

A review on rainstorm research in southern Xinjiang

南疆地区位于欧亚腹地,属于典型的温带大陆性干旱气候,受复杂地形地貌、天气系统路径以及特殊的大气环流与水汽条件等影响,暴雨突发性强且地域性特征显著。目前,全球数值预报模式及中尺度数值模式对南疆暴雨的预报能力十分有限,近年来,许多研究团队在塔里木盆地进行了大型外场观测试验,对揭示南疆暴雨的机制机理有了更多启示,对造成南疆暴雨的对流触发机制、高低空系统配置及演变特征、降雨云物理过程等都有了更为深入的认识。本文对南疆暴雨的气候特征、大尺度环流背景、中尺度系统发生发展、水汽输送、降水动力机制等方面进行了总结回顾,并提出了需要进一步研究的科学问题,以期为进一步开展南疆暴雨研究、提高暴雨预报准确率及防灾减灾能力提供参考。

South Xinjiang,located in the Eurasian hinterland,has a typical temperate continental arid climate,which is affected by complex topography,weather system paths,and special atmospheric circulation and water vapor conditions,resulting in sudden and significant regional characteristics of heavy rainfall.At present,global numerical prediction models and me so scale numerical models have a very limited ability to forecast heavy rainfall in South Xinjiang.In recent years,many research teams have conducted large-scale outfield observation experiments in the Tarim Basin and gained more insight into the convective triggering mechanism,the configuration and evolution characteristics of high and low altitude systems,and the physical processes of rainfall clouds that cause heavy rainfall in South Xinjiang.They have also shed more light on the mechanisms and causes of heavy rainfall.This paper summarizes and reviews the climatic characteristics,large-scale circulation background,mesoscale system development,water vapor transport,and precipitation dynamics mechanisms of heavy rainfall in southern Xinjiang,and proposes scientific questions that need further study,with a goal of providing references for further research on heavy rainfall in southern Xinjiang and improving the accuracy of heavy rainfall forecasting,as well as disaster prevention and mitigation.