基于CGE模型的可再生能源绿证交易机制模拟及其经济影响

Simulation and economic impact of renewable energy green certificate trading mechanism:based on the CGE model

绿证交易机制是中国推动能源结构和电力结构转型升级的重要经济手段。该研究构建了具有电力部门细分特征的中国“能源-环境-经济”递推动态CGE模型,模拟了在可再生能源电力消纳保障机制框架下实行强制性绿证交易的经济影响。研究发现:强制性绿证交易能够替代电价补贴政策促进新能源电力行业的发展,但所能实现的碳减排效果有限,2030年相比基准情景最高仅可削减3.804%的全国碳排放总量。可再生能源电力消纳保障机制的约束目标将对绿证交易机制的运行效果产生直接影响,有针对性地提高风电消纳目标,可以有效促进风电行业发展,但存在扭曲绿证交易市场、降低资源配置效率的风险。提高新能源电力的消纳责任权重需要以牺牲一定的经济发展为代价,但整体来看模拟期内对经济造成的负面冲击幅度较小,各类政策情景下实际GDP下降率不超过0.8%。在保证绿证真实绿色属性的前提下,具有较高灵活性的代理模式绿证交易可以缓解风、光电力消纳目标对用电行业生产成本和GDP造成的压力,更具成本有效性。扩大绿证交易市场行业覆盖范围能够激发绿证交易市场活力,进一步缓解强制性新能源电力消纳目标对经济发展造成的不利影响,但所能实现的碳减排效果也相对较弱。基于上述结论,该研究提出相应政策建议:通过完善奖惩机制强化可再生能源电力消纳保障机制的强制约束效力,保障绿证交易机制的实施效果;在保证绿证真实绿色属性的前提下可以选择更为灵活的绿证交易模式;为风电消纳责任权重设定适当的下限,适当引导资金流向海上风电等新兴可再生电力行业,更有效地利用可再生能源资源。

The green certificate trading mechanism is pivotal for structural transformations of the energy and power industries.This article establishes an‘energy-environment-economy’recursive dynamic CGE model with a focus on segmented sectors of the power industry.This model evaluates the economic impact of implementing mandatory green certificate trading under the mechanism for consuming power generated from renewable energy.This article finds that:①Mandatory green certificate trading can replace the feed-in tariff policy in terms of promoting the development of the new energy industry,but it has limited effects on carbon reduction.By 2030,the national total carbon emissions can only be reduced by up to 3.804%compared with the baseline scenario.②The constraints on the mechanism for consuming power generated from renewable energy directly impact the operation of the green certificate trading mechanism.Accordingly,increasing the consumption of the wind energy can effectively promote the development of wind energy industry but may distort the market by reducing the allocation efficiency.③Promoting the consumption of power generated from renewable energy comes at the cost of economic development,but the variation extent of real GDP is small throughout the simulation period,and the decrease rates are all smaller than 0.8%.④On the condition that the green attributes of the green certificates are guaranteed,green certificate trading with flexible agency modes can alleviate the pressure of the consumption of wind power on the production costs of power consumption industries and GDP.⑤Expanding the green certificate trading market to more industries can increase market vitality and alleviate the negative impact of the mandatory new energy consumption on economic development.However,it leaves limited benefits for carbon reduction.Based on the above analysis,this article provides policy proposals for the development of the green certificate trading mechanisms in China.These include:improving the reward-penalty mechanism to strengthen the constraints of the mechanism for consuming power generated from renewable energy,adopting a more flexible green certificate trading mechanism on the condition that the green attributes of the green certificate can be guaranteed,setting the lower limit of the responsibility of consumption for wind energy,facilitating investment in the emerging industries of renewable energy,and promoting the efficient use of renewable energy resources.