基于WBS-RBS与故障树耦合的洞库储油罐顶升法换底施工风险辨识与评价

Cave-Library Oil Storage Tank Top Upgrade Method Based on WBS-RBS and Fault Tree Renewed at Bottom of Construction Risk Identification and Evaluation

针对洞库储油罐顶升法换底施工系统复杂、环境受限、工艺标准高、危险系数大等特点,提出WBS-RBS与故障树耦合的风险辨识与评价方法。将换底施工作业分解结构(WBS)和风险分解结构(RBS)结合,灵活运用德尔菲法判定最终风险矩阵及发生概率。借助故障树(FTA)对6类风险进行定性与定量分析,确定敏感系数和风险因素排序。最后,提出3方面15种风险应对举措,为洞库储油罐顶升法换底施工风险控制提供借鉴。

The risk identification and evaluation method of WBS-RBS coupled with fault tree was proposed in view of the characteristics of complex construction system,limited environment,high technological standard and high risk factor for the bottom-changing method of cavernous storage tank.The final risk matrix and probability of occurrence were determined by the Delphi method flexibly by combining the bottom replacement construction operation decomposition structure(WBS)and risk decomposition structure(RBS).The fault tree(FTA)was used for qualitative and quantitative analysis of the six types of risks,and the sensitivity coefficient and risk factor ranking were determined.Finally,15 risk countermeasures from 3 aspects were put forward,which could provide reference for the risk control of bottom-changing construction of caverns storage tank with jacking method.