基于Gumbel Copula函数的琴江峰量联合概率特性分析

Analysis of Joint Probability Characteristics of Qinjiang Peak Based on Gumbel Copula Function

以琴江尖山水文站1963—2019年的历年最大洪峰和1 d最大洪量为研究对象,通过Kendall秩相关系数、Pearson相关系数、Spearman秩相关系数对该站历年最大洪峰和1 d洪量之间的相关性进行检验,证明两个变量之间存在很强的正相依性,从而建立了两变量的Gumbel Copula函数,并分析了该站最大洪峰和1 d洪量的联合概率分布,探讨了琴江年最大洪峰和1 d洪量之间的联合概率特性。这一成果能够为流域或区域河道工程规划设计和洪水风险评估等工作提供重要数据支撑。

In this paper,the historical maximum flood peak and 1d maximum flood volume of Qinjiang Jianshan Hydrological Station from 1963 to 2019 are taken as the research object,and the correlation between the historical maximum flood peak and 1d flood volume of this station is tested by Kendall rank correlation coefficient,Pearson correlation coefficient and Spearman rank correlation coefficient.It is proved that there is a strong positive dependence between the two variables,so the Gumbel Copula function of the two variables is established,the joint probability distribution of the maximum flood peak and 1d flood volume is analyzed,and the joint probability characteristics of the maximum flood peak and 1d flood volume in Qinjiang River are discussed.This result can provide important data support for the planning and design of watershed or regional river course engineering and flood risk assessment.