易地扶贫搬迁政策效果评估——基于S省三县贫困户建档立卡微观追踪数据

The Comprehensive Effects Evaluation of the Poverty Alleviation Relocation Project:Analysis Based on the Micro-tracking Data of Poor Households from Three Counties in S Province

本文基于西部S省G市三县贫困户建档立卡微观追踪数据,采用基于倾向得分匹配的渐进DID方法,系统评估了易地扶贫搬迁政策效果,并基于配套精准扶贫项目和帮扶人制度的双重视角,对促进搬迁政策效果的精准扶贫项目渠道作用和帮扶人制度保障作用进行了详细分析。研究发现,易地扶贫搬迁显著降低了家庭贫困发生率,并提升了家庭人均纯收入水平,表现出显著的脱贫效应和增收效应。三县的本土化集中安置特色模式,比分散安置表现出更好的政策效果。搬迁政策除了直接效应外,还通过配套精准扶贫项目发挥作用,主要通过产业扶贫、就业扶贫和公益岗位项目等渠道发挥作用,但短期内教育扶贫、金融扶贫项目的渠道作用不显著。帮扶人长期帮扶是搬迁政策起效的制度支撑,搬迁政策效果仅在长期帮扶样本中显著。

This paper adopts the micro-tracking data of poor households from three counties in G City of S Province in western China,and uses the staggered DID method based on propensity score matching(PSM)to systematically evaluate the effects of the poverty alleviation relocation project.This paper further discusses the roles of targeted poverty alleviation projects and grass roots-leader assistance system.Based on the dual perspectives of supporting targeted poverty alle-viation special projects and grassroots-leader assistance system,this paper makes a detailed anal-ysis of the function of targeted poverty alleviation relocation special projects and the guarantee of grassroots-leader assistance system to promote the effect of relocation policy.Results show that the poverty alleviation relocation project significantly reduces the incidence of family poverty and increases the family's per capita net income,showing significant poverty alleviation effect and in-come-increasing effect.The type of collective relocation in these three counties shows better relo-cation performance than that of dispersed one.The follow-up targeted poverty alleviation special projects are the vital support of targeted poverty alleviation relocation special projects,which work through industrial poverty alleviation project,employment poverty alleviation project and public welfare job project and other projects.However,in the short term,education poverty alle-viation and financial poverty alleviation channels have no significant effects.The grassroots-lead-er assistance system is the key for the poverty alleviation relocation project,because the policy effects of the latter are only significant in the long-term assistance samples.