京津冀地区城镇化与水资源可持续利用的演变及匹配特征

Evolution and matching characteristics of urbanization and water resources sustainable utilization in Beijing-Tianjin-Hebei region

提高水资源利用效率是实现京津冀地区城镇化高质量发展的关键环节。通过构建京津冀城市群新型城镇化水平评价指标体系,评估其时空演变特征;利用水资源生态足迹模型揭示城市群水资源利用格局。在此基础上,结合耦合协调度模型及空间匹配模型探究两者的匹配特征。结果表明:在新型城镇化水平方面,北京市(0.82)>天津市(0.47)>河北省各市(0.1~0.4),且障碍因子存在空间差异,北京市表现为生态和城乡一体化,而天津市和河北省的约束力主要来源于人口和社会城镇化。京津冀地区水资源可持续性有所增强,具体表现为人均水资源生态足迹和足迹深度下降,人均水资源生态承载力和足迹广度有所上升;而与成渝城市群相比,京津冀城市群水资源生态赤字形势严峻,高强度农业用水是造成水资源生态足迹较高的主要原因。新型城镇化质量与水资源供需在时间尺度上处于勉强协调阶段,其中北京市(良好协调)和天津市(中级协调)耦合协调度呈现上升趋势,河北省各市耦合协调性较差;水资源生态赤字与城镇化质量的空间匹配度有所下降,河北省空间匹配性(匹配)高于北京市(不匹配)和天津市(较为匹配)。

Improving water resources utilization efficiency is critical to the development of high-quality urbanization in Beijing-Tianjin-Hebei region(BTH).An evaluation index system of new urbanization level of BTH is established to evaluate its spatio-temporal evolution characteristics,and a water resources ecological footprint model is used to reveal its water resources utilization pattern.Based on this,the coupling coordination model and spatial matching model are combined to explore their matching characteristics.Results showed that the order of new urbanization level was as follows:Beijing(0.82)>Tianjin(0.47)>cities in Hebei Province(0.1-0.4).Spatial differences could be found in their obstruction factors,Beijing was mainly restricted by ecological and urban-rural integration factors,whereas that of Tianjin and Hebei mainly came from population concern.Water resources sustainability in BTH has been enhanced,because the per capita water resources ecological footprint and footprint depth decreased,and the per capita water resources ecological carrying capacity and footprint size increased.However,ecological deficit in BTH was still severe compared with Chengdu-Chongqing urban agglomeration,and high-intensity agricultural water use was the main reason for the high-level water resources ecological footprint.New urbanization quality and water resources supply-demand were at a quasi coordination stage.In the study area,the coupling coordination degree of Beijing(good coordination)and Tianjin(intermediate coordination)showed an upward trend,but that of cities in Hebei was rather poor.The spatial matching degree between water resources ecological deficit and urbanization quality has decreased,with Hebei(matching stage)higher than Beijing(mismatched stage)and Tianjin(relatively matched stage).