农业企业多元化经营风险——基于时间相依Cox回归模型的分析

Risk Analysis of Diversifi cation Operation of Agricultural Enterprises the——Is Based on the Analysis of the Time-dependent Cox Regression Model

本文选取我国246家农业及其相关产业企业为研究对象,借助时间相依Cox回归模型,从现金流量、盈利水平、偿债能力、运营状况、可持续发展前景及财务状况六个方面的财务指标探究多元化背景下研究对象的潜在风险点,进一步,对研究对象根据其多元化战略实施类型进行分类,探究不同的多元化战略是否会影响潜在风险点的分析结果,以便企业管理层做出科学可行的多元化战略决策,更好地进行企业风险管理。

This paper selected 246 agricultural and related industrial enterprises as the research object,with the time dependent Cox regression model,from the cash flow,profitability,solvency,operation status,sustainable development prospects and financial situation to explore the potential risk points,further,to explore whether the analysis results,so that the enterprise management to make scientific and feasible diversification strategy decisions,better enterprise risk management.