新疆水资源可持续利用与影响因素分析

Analysis of Sustainable Use of Water Resources and Influencing Factors in Xinjiang

基于核算2013—2019年新疆水生态足迹和水生态承载力来评价水资源的可持续利用状况,采用LMDI模型分析了新疆水生态足迹的影响因素,以期为区域水资源的可持续利用与管理提供参考。结果表明:2013—2019年新疆各地(州、市)人均水生态足迹整体呈减小趋势,除伊犁哈萨克自治州外,新疆各地(州、市)的人均水生态足迹均大于人均水生态承载力,不利于区域可持续发展;新疆各地(州、市)万元GDP水生态足迹整体呈下降趋势;除伊犁哈萨克自治州外,新疆各地(州、市)水生态压力指数均处于不安全状态,水资源可持续利用指数均处于不可持续状态。在影响因素分析中,结构与人口因素的变化趋势平缓,但人口因素对新疆各地(州、市)水生态足迹的增加起到了显著作用,技术因素主要对新疆各地(州、市)水生态足迹的增加起到抑制作用,经济因素主要对新疆各地(州、市)水生态足迹的增加起到促进作用。

Based on the accounting of water ecological footprint and water ecological carrying capacity in Xinjiang from 2013 to 2019,the sustainable use of water resources was evaluated,and the LMDI model was used to analyze the influencing factors of water ecological footprint in Xinjiang,so as to provide reference for the sustainable use and management of regional water resources.The results show that the per capita water ecological footprint of cities(regions and prefectures)in Xinjiang from 2013 to 2019 shows an overall decreasing trend.Except for Ili Kazakh Autonomous Prefecture,the per capita water ecological footprint of cities(regions and prefectures)in Xinjiang is greater than the per capita water ecological carrying capacity,which is not conducive to regional sustainable development.The overall water ecological footprint of 10000 yuan GDP of cities(regions and prefectures)in Xinjiang shows a downward trend.Except for Ili Kazakh Autonomous Prefecture,the water ecological stress index of all cities(regions and prefectures)in Xinjiang is in an unsafe state,and the sustainable use index of water resources is in an unsustainable state.In the analysis of influencing factors,the change trend of structure and population factors is flat,but the change of population factors play a significant role in the increase of water ecological footprint of cities(regions and prefectures)in Xinjiang.The change of technical factors mainly inhibits the increase of water ecological footprint of cities(regions and prefectures)in Xinjiang,and the change of economic factors mainly promotes the increase of water ecological footprint of cities(regions and prefectures)in Xinjiang.