基于Context-dependent嵌入的省级碳排放权分层分配策略研究

Research on Stratified Allocation Strategy of Provincial Carbon Emission Right Based on Context-dependent Embedding

考虑省际资源禀赋差异,在ZSG-DEA模型中嵌入Context-dependent,以分层的方式构建渐进式改进资源分配模型,对2030年全国30个省份碳排放权进行分配。结果表明:效率值方面,全国总体效率较好,呈现出东西中地区依次降低的状态,各省份间效率值差距较大,传统能源大省(区)碳排放效率低下;碳排放权调整方面,陕西、山西、内蒙古3个效率值较低的省份需要做出较大的缩减量,而山东、广东等处于第一层有效前沿面的省份获得了相较之前更多的碳排放量;模型对比方面,在保证2030年碳排放目标基础上,C-ZSG-DEA模型在效率值的改进上和碳排放调整上都比其他模型要小,符合渐进式改进的理念。

Considering the difference of inter-provincial resource endowment,the Context-dependent model is embedded in the ZSG-DEA model to build a resource allocation model for progressive improvement goals in a hierarchical manner,and allocate carbon emission rights of 30 provinces nationwide in 2030.The results show that:in terms of efficiency value,the overall national efficiency is good,presenting a trend of gradual decrease from the east to the west and then to the middle,with relatively large efficiency value difference among provinces;the traditional major province of energy has low emission efficiency and large emission reduction pressure.In terms of carbon emission right adjustment,the promotion of new energy technologies is encouraged.The three provinces with low efficiency values,Shaanxi,Shanxi and Inner Mongolia,need to make greater reductions,while Shandong,Guangdong and other provinces in the first effective frontier can obtain more carbon emissions than before.In terms of model comparison,on the premise of ensuring 2030 carbon emission target,the C-ZSG-DEA model is smaller than other models in terms of efficiency value improvement and carbon emission adjustment,which conforms to the concept of gradual improvement.