集成生态软约束机制的城市空间形态时空演变情景模拟

Scenario simulation of spatiotemporal evolution of urban spatial form integrating ecological soft constraint mechanism

自然生态空间是生物栖息繁衍的场所,生物和非生物成分组成的生态系统为人类提供赖以生存的生态系统服务。新时期绿色发展战略下高质量国土空间资源配置需要科学探究生态空间约束的作用机理。以泉州市为研究区,选取水源涵养、土壤保持和生物多样性等生态系统服务为生态因子,基于有序加权平均(OWA)算法构建城市扩张的生态软约束机制。以2005年土地利用现状为起始值,综合考虑自然人文等驱动力因素,基于构建的OWA-FLUS模型对泉州市2020年和2035年土地利用时空演化动态开展多情景模拟预测。结果表明:(1)策略控制因子δ=0.000001下,OWA-FLUS模型的总体精度和Kappa系数达到95.94%和0.7742,FoM和FoM_(urban)比FLUS模型分别提高了4.95%和7.17%,基于提升潜力空间的MICE功效指数分别为0.059和0.102。(2)当δ值从0向1000变化时,OWA-FLUS模型的模拟精度逐渐下降。对比δ=1.0的赋权线性组合(WLC)生态约束,δ=0.000001下的OWA模拟的FoM_(urban)提升了5.70%。(3)2035年基准情景、WLC情景和OWA情景下,区县尺度和乡镇尺度的城市面积增长率具有显著空间差异。对比基准和WLC情景,OWA情景下研究区西北部的县市区增长率显著下降,东部和南部沿海平原区的晋江市和石狮市表现出更大的发展潜力。综上所述,基于OWA-FLUS模型开展泉州市土地利用动态时空演化多情景模拟预测,可为重要生态资源约束下的区域国土空间优化提供科学参考。

Natural ecological space is the place where living things live and multiply.Ecosystems composed of biotic and abiotic components provide ecosystem services on which humans depend.High-quality territorial space planning under the green development strategy in the new era needs to scientifically explore the mechanism of ecological space constraints.Taking Quanzhou City as the study area,and selecting ecosystem services such as water conservation,soil conservation,and biodiversity as ecological factors,an ecological soft constraint mechanism for urban expansion is constructed based on the Ordered Weighted Averaging(OWA)algorithm.Comprehensively considering natural,human and other driving factors,the constructed OWA-FLUS model was used to carry out multi-scenario simulation and prediction of land use dynamics in Quanzhou during 2005—2020 and 2020—2035.The results show that:(1)when the policy control factorδ=0.000001,the overall accuracy and Kappa coefficient of the OWA-FLUS model reached 95.94%and 0.7742,and the FoM and FoMurban were improved by 4.95%and 7.17%,respectively,compared with the FLUS model.The efficacy index MICE based on the FoM value was 0.059 and 0.102,respectively.(2)When the value ofδchanged from 0 to 1000,the simulation accuracy of the OWA-FLUS model gradually decreased.Compared with the weighted linear combination(WLC)ecological constraint withδ=1.0,the OWA simulation withδ=0.000001 had 5.70%increase in FoMurban.(3)In 2035,there will be significantly spatial differences in urban area growth rates at the district/county scales and the township scale under the baseline,WLC,and OWA scenarios.Comparing the baseline and WLC scenarios,the urban area growth rate of counties and districts in the northwest of the study area decreased significantly under the OWA scenario,and Jinjiang and Shishi in the eastern and southern coastal plains showed greater development potential.In summary,the multi-scenario simulation and prediction of the dynamic spatiotemporal evolution of land use in Quanzhou based on the OWA-FLUS model can provide a scientific reference for the optimization of regional land space under the constraints of important ecological resources.