基于变权重大坝预测模型的组合告警方法研究

Research on combinatorial alarm method based on variable weight dam prediction model

针对传统大坝测点安全监测采用单一模型进行预测告警时存在虚假警报频次较高、人工干预较少的问题,提出了一种基于预测模型权重分配及修改的大坝测点预测组合模型。以常见的多种预测模型和数据评价指标为研究对象,通过引入残差修正技术对预测结果进行处理,建立预测模型评价指标体系并确定指标的客观和主观权重,依据主客观权重对模型进行排序优选,通过实时的评价指标和告警状态反馈修改优选模型权重进而对大坝测点进行告警。实例验证表明:该告警反馈算法有效降低了误警告频次和告警等级,使结果更加符合大坝性态。

To address the problems of high frequency of false alarms and low manual intervention in the traditional dam measurement point safety monitoring by using a single model for prediction alarms,this paper proposes a combined model for dam deformation prediction based on weight assignment and modification.A variety of common prediction models and data evaluation indicators are used as the research objects,and the prediction results are processed by introducing the residual correction technique,establishing the prediction model evaluation indicator system and determining the objective and subjective weights of the indicators,and ranking and selecting the models based on the objective and subjective weights.The model weights are modified by real-time feedback of the evaluation indexes and alarm status,and then the dam measurement points are alarmed.The experiment proved that the warning feedback algorithm effectively reduces the frequency of false warnings and warning levels,and makes the results more consistent with the dam s sexual state.