乌克兰危机对俄罗斯原油出口影响及中俄油气合作思考

Impact of the Ukraine crisis on Russian crude oil export and thoughts on Sino-Russian oil and gas cooperation

俄罗斯是世界第二大原油生产国和出口国,对世界能源市场的稳定具有举足轻重的意义。来自油气行业的税收占俄罗斯预算收入的40%左右,是俄罗斯经济社会发展的最重要基础。乌克兰危机爆发以来,西方国家对俄罗斯实施11轮制裁,涵盖经济、社会、外交、军事等各方面。2022年12月5日,欧盟停止进口俄罗斯海上原油,G7国家和澳大利亚宣布对俄罗斯海上原油设置60美元/bbl的限价措施,在波罗的海交割的乌拉尔原油价格应声下跌,交易价格维持在40~50美元/bbl的水平,大幅低于限价上限。以国际上部分权威油气数据库和期刊数据为基础,通过追踪分析乌克兰危机对俄罗斯原油出口的影响,有利于弄清中国对俄罗斯油气合作面临的机遇和挑战,为深化中俄能源合作提供借鉴。乌克兰危机已经引起世界地缘政治和能源格局发生深度调整,中国能源发展必须未雨绸缪,在更高维度以创造性思维谋划中国能源安全图谱,同时注意在合作的过程中抓好风险防范,避免被西方次级制裁影响,确保在风险可控的条件下切实端牢能源饭碗。

Russia is the second largest crude oil producer and exporter in the world,which is of great significance to the stability of the world energy market.Meanwhile,taxes from the oil and gas industry account for about 40%of the budgetary revenue of the Russian Federation,forming the most important foundation for Russia's economic and social development.In February 2022,since the conflict between Russia and Ukraine,western countries have imposed 11 rounds of sanctions on Russia,covering economic,social,diplomatic,military and other aspects.Especially since December 5th,2022,the EU stopped importing Russian shipping crude oil,G7 countries and Australia announced a price limit of US$60/barrel for Russian shipping crude oil,Ural crude oil delivered in the Baltic Sea fell accordingly,and the trading price remained at 40~50$/barrel,significantly lower than the upper limit of the price limit.Based on some authoritative oil and gas databases and journals in the world,by tracking and analyzing the impact of the Ukraine crisis on crude oil exports,it is helpful to clarify the opportunities and challenges of oil and gas cooperation with Russia,and provide reference for deepening Sino-Russian energy cooperation.The Ukraine crisis has caused a deep adjustment in the world's geopolitical and energy landscape.It is necessary for China's energy development to take precautions and creatively plan national energy security map in a higher dimension.Meanwhile,China should pay attention to risk prevention in the process of cooperation,avoid being influenced by secondary Western sanction,and ensure that the energy security is effectively secured under controllable risk conditions.