冲突层级与国际非政府组织参与冲突调停的效力分析

Conflict Levels and Efficacy of Engagement of International Non-Governmental Organizations in Conflict Mediation

冷战结束后,国内冲突逐步成为世界武装冲突的主要形式之一,而冲突调解是构建冲突国国内和平的关键一环。伴随着和平建构主题的多元性,国际非政府组织逐步成为当今时代各类冲突中活跃的调解主体。然而,国际非政府组织的调停实效始终备受争议。一方面,国际非政府组织宣称可凭借其在中立性、道义性上的优势对国内冲突进行有效调停;另一方面,强制能力的缺乏也使其难以在实施环节有所作为。因此,研究国际非政府组织在调停过程中的成功与失败,界定冲突层级,对于理解国际非政府组织的调解效力至关重要。不同层级的冲突顺应不同的冲突逻辑,不同的冲突逻辑则生发不同的冲突情境与格局。在底层冲突中,碎片化和多元主体并存的冲突格局更适合国际非政府组织的运作;而在顶层冲突中,其强制能力不足的缺点遭到放大。基于这一逻辑,在调解活动中与主权国家展开合作则有望强化其调解效力。通过对非洲和平进程展开的实证研究说明,评价国际非政府组织的调解效果特别是在非洲地区的调解效果需要考虑冲突层级等限定条件,并将其与多元主体的互动纳入考量范围。国际非政府组织在冲突调停中应与主权国家的调停体系进行密切配合,在维护国家主权与国际体系稳定的前提下,整合主权国家、国际非政府组织等多方治理行为体的作用,可有效地提升冲突调停的可能性。

Since the end of the Cold War,internal conflicts gradually became the primary form of armed conflicts worldwide,and conflict mediation is a key component in building domestic peace for countries beset by internal conflicts.Against this backdrop,international non-governmental organizations(INGOs)have gradually emerged as active mediators in various conflicts of the current era.However,the mediation effectiveness of these INGOs is a subject of ongoing debate.On the one hand,they claim to be able to effectively mediate internal conflicts by virtue of their neutrality and moral standing.On the other hand,their lack of enforcement power hampers their effectiveness in implementation.Aiming to understand the mediation efficacy of INGOs,this paper attempts to explain their successes and failures in the mediation process.The theoretical framework of this paper posits that identifying the levels of conflict is crucial for understanding the mediation power of INGOs.Conflicts at different levels conform to different logics,which in turn produce various conflict situations and patterns.In lower-level conflicts,the fragmented and diversified nature of the conflict landscape is more suitable for the operations of INGOs.In higher-level conflicts,their lack of enforcement power becomes a significant disadvantage.Based on this logic,collaborating with sovereign States in mediation activities can enhance their mediation effectiveness.Supplemented by case studies to illustrate the theoretical process,this paper employs the African Peace Process dataset,regression models and heterogeneity analysis to verify these views.The empirical findings suggest that evaluating the mediation outcomes of INGOs needs to take into consideration qualifications like conflict levels and INGOs’interactions with multiple actors.The research indicates that INGOs should work closely with the mediation systems of sovereign States.On the premise of maintaining national sovereignty and international system stability,the effectiveness of conflict mediation can be greatly enhanced through the integration of the roles of sovereign States and INGOs.