基于仿真的多品种小批量生产资源负荷预测

Simulation Based Resource Load Prediction for Multi Variety and Small Batch Production

生产计划的制订需充分考虑生产资源的负荷情况。在多品种小批量生产模式下,工序加工时间的不确定性以及生产加工质量等因素的影响会导致加工过程中实际资源负荷与计划之间存在偏差。针对上述问题,对实际生产所需的资源进行负荷预测。考虑工序历时、加工不合格率以及设备使用前准备时间对资源负荷的影响,提出一种资源负荷预测模型并应用蒙特卡洛仿真方法,以概率分布的形式描述工序加工历时的不确定性。通过仿真验证了预测模型的可行性,实现了对生产资源负荷较为符合实际的预测,为制定生产计划提供有效参考。

Production planning should take full account of the load of production resources.In the multi-variety and small-batch production mode,the uncertainty of process processing time and the influence of production and pro-cessing quality can lead to the deviation between the actual resource load and the plan in the process of processing.To solve this problem,Monte Carlo simulation method was used in this paper to predict the load of resources needed in actual production.Considering the influence of processing time,unqualified rate and equipment preparation time on re-source load,a resource load degree model was proposed,and Monte Carlo simulation method was used to describe the uncertainty of process processing duration in the form of probability distribution.The feasibility of the prediction model was verified through simulation,and a more realistic prediction of production resource load was achieved,providing ef-fective reference for formulating production plans.