新常态下海洋经济新旧动能转换测评与影响因素分析

Analysis of the Replacement of Old Growth Drivers with New Ones and Affecting Factors in China′s Marine Economy under New Normal Situation

海洋经济新旧动能转换是坚持新发展理念、深化海洋供给侧结构性改革、推动海洋经济转型升级的重要标志,对实现海洋经济高质量发展有重要意义。基于海洋经济新旧动能转换内涵与机理,从需求侧、供给侧、结构转换动能三个维度构建综合评价指标体系;运用主客观赋权法、TOPSIS模型和核密度估计,对中国2006—2020年海洋经济新旧动能转换进行测算与评价;引入GWR模型探讨中国沿海11个省份各影响因素的空间异质性。结果表明,中国海洋经济新旧动能转换综合指数总体呈现波动上升趋势。其中,结构转换动能提升最为显著,需求侧动能总体呈波动上升态势,供给侧动能转换指数整体发展水平不高,对海洋经济新旧动能转换贡献力度较小;2006—2020年,中国海洋经济新旧动能转换指数差异呈先缩小后扩大继而再缩小的变化过程;陆域经济发展水平、海洋产业结构水平、海洋科技创新水平对海洋经济动能转换的提升起正向作用,各因素影响效应具有空间异质性。

The replacement of old growth drivers with new ones in China′s marine economy is an important symbol of adhering to the new development philosophy,deepening the structural reform of the marine supply side,and promoting the transformation and upgrading of the marine economy.It is of great significance to realize the high-quality development of the marine economy.Based on the connotation and mechanism of the replacement of old growth drivers with new ones in marine economy,a comprehensive evaluation index system is constructed from three dimensions:demand side,supply side and structural transformation growth drivers.The subjective and objective weighting method,TOPSIS model and kernel density estimation are used to measure and evaluate the replacement of old growth drivers with new ones in China′s marine economy from 2006 to 2020.The GWR model is introduced to explore the spatial heterogeneity of influencing factors in 11 coastal provinces and cities in China.The comprehensive index of the replacement of old growth drivers with new ones in China′s marine economy generally shows a fluctuating upward trend.Among them,the structural transformation growth driver is the most significant,the demand-side growth driver is generally fluctuating,the overall development level of the supply-side growth driver index is not high,and the contribution to the replacement of old growth drivers with new ones in the marine economy is small.From 2006 to 2020,the difference in the index of the replacement of old growth drivers with new ones in China′s marine economy shows a process of first narrowing,then expanding and finally narrowing.The level of land economic development,the level of marine industrial structure and the level of marine scientific and technological innovation play a positive role in promoting the replacement of old growth drivers with new ones,and all influencing factors have the spatial heterogeneity.