基于系统协调度模型的汛限水位分期控制

Staged Control of Flood Limit Water Level Based on System Coordination Degree Model

为协调防洪与兴利的矛盾,提高洪水资源化利用效益,基于改进模糊集方法进行汛期分期,建立系统协调度模型并计算得到汛限水位的动态控制域。以思林水库为例,前、后汛期的汛限水位与发电效益协同贡献度成正比,与防洪风险协同贡献度成反比;为实现系统协调度最大,前、后汛期的汛限水位动态控制域应分别为[435,437]m和[435,438]m,前、后汛期可分别增发电量2169.907×10^(4)、6509.722×10^(4)kW·h,水资源利用量可分别提高0.716×10^(8)、1.079×10^(8)m^(3)。研究成果可提高洪水资源利用效率,为水库安全合理运行提供参考。

To coordinate between flood control and profit promotion and enhance the efficient utilization of flood resources,we proposed a stage-based division of flood season using the improved fuzzy set method,and subsequently established a system coordination degree model to calculate the dynamic control domain of flood limit water level.The limit water levels in Silin Reservoir,as an example,in pre-flood season and post-flood season are directly proportional to the synergetic contribution degree of power generation benefit,but inversely proportional to the synergetic contribution degree of flood control risk.To achieve the maximum degree of system coordination,the dynamic control domain of flood limit water level is recommended to be[435,437]m and[435,438]m in pre-flood season and post-flood season,respectively.These recommendations would lead to additional electricity generation of 2169.907×10^(4)kW·h and 6509.722×10^(4)kW·h,and an increase in water resources utilization of 0.716×10^(8)m 3 and 1.079×10^(8)m^(3),during the pre-and post-flood seasons,respectively.The findings of this study contribute to improved flood resource utilization and offer valuable insights for the safe and reasonable operation of reservoirs.