个人养老金一周年评估与前瞻——基于一个理论框架的分析

Evaluation and Prospect of the First Anniversary of the Personal Pension:An Analysis Based on a Theoretical Framework

全面建成多层次、多支柱养老保险体系是贯彻落实党中央国务院关于积极应对人口老龄化决策部署的重要举措。在个人养老金正式实施一周年之际,本文试图构建一个理论评估框架,对个人养老金一年来的市场表现做一多维度评估。根据该评估框架提出的“模式评估法”,个人养老金覆盖率的表现超出预期,已基本实现“可替代模式”的制度目标;根据“本土政策评估法”,覆盖率达20.2%,成绩不俗;根据“国际流行评估法”,覆盖率为15.2%,差距不大。与试点五年半的税延型商业养老保险相比,个人养老金覆盖率出现一个质的飞跃。但是,波动的资本市场致使个人养老金制度正陷入一个怠惰性有余、活跃性不足的低效状态,抵消良好的覆盖率表现的制度功能,对未来个人养老金替代率的负面影响将是深远和致命的。个人养老金的制度属性和市场特征意味着,中国养老金体系改革将从完善制度设计的纯粹“单轮驱动”正向完善制度设计与完善资本市场相结合的“双轮驱动”阶段转变,未来可期。

The comprehensive establishment of a multi-level and multi-pillar pension insurance system is an important measure to implement the decision and deployment of the Party Central Committee and the State Council to actively respond to population aging.On the first anniversary of the implementation of the Individual Pension Account(IPA),this article attempts to construct a theoretical evaluation framework to conduct a multi-dimensional assessment of the IPA market performance over the past year.The evaluation framework proposes three methods:the “Model Evaluation Method” shows the performance of IPA coverage exceeded expectations and has basically achieved the institutional goal of “alternative model of IPA”;according the “Local Evaluation Method”,the coverage rate reaches 20.2%,which was a satisfactory performance,and the “International Evaluation Method” shows the coverage rate is 15.2%,which is not a big gap.Compared with the tax-deferred commercial pension insurance that has been piloted for five and a half years,although there has been a great leap in coverage of IPA,the fluctuating capital markets have caused IPA to fall into an inefficient state with more than enough inactivity and insufficient activity,offsetting the IPA institutional functions of good coverage performance,the negative impact on future IPA replacement rates will be far-reaching and fatal.The institutional attributes and market characteristics of IPA mean that the reform of China's pension system will transform from a pure “single-wheel drive” of improving IPA design to a “two-wheel drive” stage of improving both the IPA system design and the capital markets,so the future can be expected.